Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

FORECAST QUANDARIES ARE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...AND POPS
FOR TOMORROW.

THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI AT 00Z.  IT
APPEARS THAT ALABAMA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WAVE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOMORROW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO TEXAS...THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE MOISTURE FROM
BOTH OF THOSE SYSTEMS WILL MEAN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...FORECAST LI/S EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE -6 OR GREATER RANGE...CAPES 3000+...SHOULD SEE STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW.  ESPECIALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

PW/S ARE AT OR NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH TOMORROW.  WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH.

MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH POPS INCREASING
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL GO WITH RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING POPS.  EXPECT TO BREAK
THE EAST CENTRAL ZONE OUT AND GO SLIGHTLY THERE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
HSV TB 072/089 071/088 072 363-
BHM TB 073/090 072/089 072 4632
MGM TE 072/090 072/090 072 3632

.BHM...NONE.

80

ALZ001>050-301930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
129 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE DURING THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE LATE AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE INTENSITIES...MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE NON SEVERE AND NO ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE...3
BIRMINGHAM...3
MONTGOMERY...3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0535 PM    HUNTSVILLE                AL   70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/30/02   MADISON                        RECORDED BY ASOS AT
                                          HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL
                                          AIRPORT.

0546 PM    MADISON                   AL   WIND DAMAGE
07/30/02   MADISON                        LARGE TREE DOWN ON AUTO
                                          BUSINESS. REPORTED BY
                                          MADISON COUNTY EMA.

0615 PM    RED BAY                   AL   WIND DAMAGE
07/30/02   FRANKLIN                       A FEW TREES DOWN AND SOME
                                          ROADS IMPASSABLE.
                                          REPORTED BY THE RED BAY
                                          POLICE DEPARTMENT.