Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST WED AUG 1 2001

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. AS EXPECTED...WARMING AT THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME...BUT SURFACE HEATING HAS FINALLY BEEN ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THIS CAP. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN IN
NORTHERN SONORA (TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS) AND OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. WITH STORM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT AT A
MINIMUM QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER COCHISE AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES TONIGHT FROM BLOWOFF OF THESE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
MOISTURE STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND ALLOW EASTERLY
DISTURBANCES TO TRACK IN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ATTM...NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
HANDLING THESE SUBTLE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND AMPLE
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL GO WITH STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  ZELL

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-030700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1200 PM MST THU AUG 2 2001

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VALUES FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
VALUES WERE FROM TUCSON WEST. 02/12Z KTUS SOUNDING INDICATES SOME
WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
WARMING ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.