Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

NEW TOR WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND WILL UPDATE ZONES WHEN
WATCH IS UPDATED. MORNING ETA AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AGREE
IN BRINGING SFC TEMPS IN MID/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN SE OK
AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRYLINE. WINDS BEHIND DRYLINE ARE FCST
TO BACK SOME WHICH WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF SVR THREAT AND WILL
ALSO KEEP THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS DURING THE DAY. SFC
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH IN E ZONES WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 50 MPH ESP AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL UP WINDS IN UPDATE
AS WELL AS UPDATE THE WIND ADVISORY. /13
.TUL...
.AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZONES
1-2-10-11-19-20-29.
.OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZONES 49-53-54>76.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDDAY
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THERE IS
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS MORNING AND IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING.  A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN TOWARD THE EASTERN
PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  A WARM FRONT
WAS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER.  EARLY THIS MORNING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS WITH
THE DRYLINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  MEANWHILE...THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TODAY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE AND THE WARM FRONT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SUNDAY

THREAT AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...60

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT.  SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/
TORNADO DAMAGE AND/OR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY HAVE PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATUL/ FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR TODAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE ALSO
PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY /OKCNPWTUL/ FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR TODAY.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
 WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA