Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
230 PM MDT FRI JUN 01 2001

SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER UTAH TONIGHT.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY IN MOST AREAS BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY.  A STRONGER SURGE OF COOL
AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PLAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SURFACE THERMAL TROF PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST UT THIS EVENING THEN WORKS TO ABOUT MID STATE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG EHT WEST COAST PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  SECOND SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF UT.  THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE...HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL GET AND JUST HOW COLD THE SECOND
PUSH WILL BE.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST UT THIS
EVENING BUT STILL BE A LITTLE LIMITED.  THAT SHOULD ALSO BE THE
SITUATION NEAR THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LIFTED
INDICES JUST BARELY GET BELOW ZERO ON THE ETA RUNS AND DONT EVEN GET
THAT LOW ON THE AVN.  SO WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THEY ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY SPOTTY.  STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS.
IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

ON THE COLD AIR QUESTION...THE 18Z ETA HAS MOVED TOWARD THE COLDER
AVN SOLUTION AND WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IT ISNT HARD TO BELIEVE SOME
FAIRLY COOL AIR ARRIVING.

THE COOLNESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN RETREATS RAPIDLY AS
THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS STRONGLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  THEN
IT WILL BE JUST PLAIN HOT THURSDAY/FRIDAY IF THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE ON THE MRF IS ANYWHERE NEAR CORRECT.  EVEN ADJUSTING FOR THE
STRONG WARM BIAS THAT STILL EXISTS AFTER THE MAY CHANGES IN THE
AVN/MRF...IT COULD STILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.

SLC 233- CDC 0---  SANDERS

.SLC...NONE.

UTZ005-020300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
707 PM MDT FRI JUN 1 2001

...MICROBURST WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE
STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORM CELLS. THE WINDS MAY CAUSE LOCAL BLOWING
DUST WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL BRIEFLY HAZARDOUS.

MOTORISTS DRIVING ON INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS THE SALT FLATS OF
NORTHWEST UTAH SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND DIRT. BOATERS /SHOULD
MOVE TO A SAFE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. THESE
MICROBURST WINDS MAY INCREASE VERY SUDDENLY.

WENDOVER AIRPORT RECEIVED A GUST TO 60 MPH AT 655 PM.