Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
TODAY.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AND CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG WERE SUPPORTING RAPID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE NOW OVER MANITOBA WILL BE THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IS IT AIDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.  MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL CARRY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.  LIGHT WIND FIELD AT ALL LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY FLOOD PRODUCING STORMS.  SOME HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER PULSE TYPE STORMS.

ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH
FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND NO CAP WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.  A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN THREAT THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GOING.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE
AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY SO WILL GO FOR A DRY DAY.  THE AVN PROGS A
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT
THE SURFACE.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION EAX.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR FORECAST COORDINATION ONLY...
FCSTID = 11
SGF   67  85  65  84 /  30  30  40  40
JLN   68  87  66  85 /  30  30  40  40
UNO   66  85  65  84 /  30  30  40  40
VIH   67  85  65  84 /  30  30  40  40

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1045 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0535 PM    5 S LEBANON               MO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/28/01   LACLEDE                        HAIL FELL FOR 45
                                          MINUTES. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2001

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
...THE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.   THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOSTER