Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2001

THINGS A BIT SLOWER TO GET GOING VERSUS THE THE PAST THREE DAYS...AT
LEAST SO FAR. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 5H TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL...UPPER LOW CENTERED REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN MO...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POPPING
UP. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. SO
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALSO
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 25H JET. THIS ACTIVITY HAS THROWN OFF SOME WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO SW MO. AS WITH PAST DAYS...WILL CARRY AN EVENING RAIN
CHANCE EVERYWHERE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
ETA/AVN REMAIN SIMILAR IN SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW OVER MO WHILE
DEVELOPING ANOTHER MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE TX GULF COAST.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS SECOND CIRCULATION NICELY. AS A RESULT...
WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LESSEN RAIN CHANCE TOMORROW.
WITH 5H HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES SEEM NEAR NIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. COLD
FRONT SINKS INTO NORTHERN MO ON SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE ANY ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH.

IN THE EXTENDED...HEIGHTS BUILD OUT WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. MRF PUSHES FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MO
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN AR ON THURSDAY. PROXIMITY OF FRONT
COUPLE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SPELL A CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST ONLY:

FCSTID = 26/DSA
SGF   64  83  65  O86 /  50  30  30  10
JLN   65  85  67  88 /  50  30  30  10
UNO   64  82  64  84 /  50  30  30  10
VIH   64  83  64  84 /  50  30  20  10

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2001

...SCATTERED STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...

SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DIME SIZED HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.

BECAUSE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND THUS PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

BECAUSE OF SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDLEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHEN COMPARED TO CONDITIONS 24 HOURS AGO...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PERSONS ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY RISING WATER IN AND NEAR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
STATEMENTS...BUT BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WIDESPREAD ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DSA