Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
240 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2001

...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS...

CURRENTLY...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WELL UNDER WAY OVER SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WHERE THERE IS NO CAP.  SATELLITE DERIVED
CIN PRODUCT SHOWS CAP AND DRY AIR OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  A STRONGER
BOUNDARY MOVED SOUTHEAST AND RUNS FROM EL PASO COUNTY TO OTERO
COUNTY. TSTORMS OVER MTNS WERE MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF NORTH...SO
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE A STORM COULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  DON'T SEE ANY KICKER TO SET OFF
WIDESPREAD TSTORMS OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR AREA...BUT A FEW
PULSE SEVERE WILL BE PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO LAST EVENING THE BEST BET. BOU HAS
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM PALMER DIVIDE TO WYOMING...BUT SINCE
WE DIDN'T HAVE DRENCHING RAINS LAST NIGHT...WON'T DO FOR OUR CWFA.
WITH UPPER HIGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST...TSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OR
JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH.  WILD CARD WILL BE WHERE STRONGEST
STORMS DEVELOP AND WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AS THEY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  UPPER
FRONT WILL BE OVER MONUMENT RIDGE...THE LINE BETWEEN MOISTER UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH.  AN MCS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WOULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OR TWO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE TO
GO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH
VALLEYS...AND PIKES PEAK REGION...AND ISOLATED OVER MUCH OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND TOWARD LA JUNTA AND PINON CANYON.  WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES DRY TONIGHT.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MESOETA HAS BEEN DOING A FAIRLY GOOD
JOB OF RESOLVING THE DETAILS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT SHOWS A
SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD.  WILL CONTINUE TO GO LOW
TO MID POPS AND SCATTERED IN WESTERN 2/3RDS OF CWFA AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.  AVN GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEMS TO BE WAY
UNDERDONE WITH FWC MORE REASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH TENDS TO SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH A BIT.  WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF THE SCATTERED MTN THUNDER TO MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE KANSAS
BORDER.  TSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.  LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPS.

EXTENDED...THE CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF COLORADO WHICH MEANS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY IN MTNS AND MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW AND WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY.  WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT
THE NEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF ANY MORE DETAIL CAN BE EXTRACTED FROM
THEM.  REGARDLESS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE...WITH MRF
HINTING AT SLIGHTLY HOTTER AND LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PUB...NONE.

TLM

COZ058>081-091930-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT MON JUL 9 2001

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH VALLEYS.  WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.

ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY BE CAPPED...AND NO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED.

OVER THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...SCATTERED
"THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.  THE THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UNDER 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.