Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
300 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2001

CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NM TODAY.  THERE WILL BE
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK SURGE ENTERED THE AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL TEMPS OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH FWC GUIDANCE NUMBERS. ADDED CLOUD COVER TODAY COULD
MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT MAV GUIDANCE IN SOME AREAS LOOKS
TOO COOL.  WILL GO CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS.  SPC HAS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WITH MODERATE 0-6KM SHEAR.  LI'S EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -2
TO -4 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  LAPSE RATES
OVER THE AREA RANGE FROM 7 TO 8 C/KM.  SUSPECT BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WOULD BE MORE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE BEST
MOISTURE..HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED.

EXPECT MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END AFTER THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT SOME OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD LINGER BEYOND
THE EVENING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BUT REMAINS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NM.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER...BUT PROBABLY WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.  MODEL TEMPS
SHOW LITTLE OR NO CHANGE OVER THE AREA.  AFTER SOME EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SKIES SHOULD BE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EXTENDED (SAT-WED):  SAT AND SUN THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL CENTERED
OVER NM AND MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.  700MB TEMPS WARM TO
BETWEEN 16 AND 18 DEG C.  SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. OVER THE FORECAST AREA TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM LIKE ON SAT
AND SUN...AND MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING. ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND IN CO WE GET AN UPSLOPE SURGE
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
AREAS.  ON WED TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
ON TUE.  THE MRF ALSO SHOWS SOME MOISTURE STILL OVER EASTERN AREAS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.  WILL ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THESE TWO DAYS.

PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-071945-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2001

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND
OVER PIKES PEAK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS...INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR AND BEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND
BACA COUNTIES...WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR...ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...PUEBLO...CROWLEY...OTERO AND
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS
IN THESE AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.