Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST
DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
245 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2001

...COVERAGE/THREATS WITH T-STORMS THIS EVENING...AND COLD FRONTAL
BLAST SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS TIME AROUND...

SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS
PER FORECAST.  SHORTWAVE IS NOW BECOMING KEY IN HELPING CONVECTION
TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RATON RIDGE.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL (>3/4 INCH)...ACROSS
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...BENT...AND KIOWA COUNTIES.
THE OTHER...GREATER THREAT...IS HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED AREAS HAVE
SEEN RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LAST
THREE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF PROWERS
COUNTY IN THE LAST THREE HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE AREAS
CLOSELY THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAIN RUNOFF
QUICKLY DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH REMAINING
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE
DECLINE ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT...AS EVERYTHING PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMER WITH MORE SUN.  THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY.  LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...THINGS CHANGE BIG TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY.  MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY DIFFER ON TIMING.  THE AVN BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ETA HOLDS OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING.  THEY ALSO DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THE AVN IS LESS GENEROUS WILL THE COOLING (-4C OR SO AT
H7 ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY) WHILE THE ETA IS MUCH MORE
DRAMATIC (-8C AT H7 BY THE SAME TIME).  NOT SURE WHICH WILL WIN OUT
BUT ITLL BE A LOT COLDER EITHER WAY.  ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW DOWN TO
8000 SUNDAY NIGHT?  OR MAYBE EVEN 7000?  WILL HAVE TO WATCH.  IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD...STRONG WINDS TO COME THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL
SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COOLING...MOST
PEOPLE SHOULD NOTICE WHEN THIS FRONT COMES THROUGH.  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DONT LOOK REAL IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...AS MOISTURE SEEMS
TO BE LACKING.  SURFACE PROGS LOOK LIKE THEY GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WINDS THAT BLOW THROUGH.  BUT
UPPER LEVEL PROGS DONT LOOK VERY MOIST.  IMAGINE THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MUCH THROUGH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY...AND THEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND LIFT THE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  MEDIUM POPS OUGHT TO COVER IT.  DONT EXPECT THIS FRONT
TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT OVERALL TO AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAIN
RANGES.  HOWEVER...THESE AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME COOLER AIR
SPREAD IN...MOVING WEST THROUGH THE PASSES AND VALLEYS.

MONDAY...NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR MOISTURE LEFT AS FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
SOUTH OF AREA.  WILL CARRY A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL
AREAS...BUT SHOULDNT BE A BIG DEAL.  ALSO...WOULD THINK THAT WINDS
WILL BE JUST ABOUT OVER...AS MAIN PRESSURE SURGE HAS MOVED WELL
PAST.  A COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE MOST PART.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THINGS WARM UP PRETTY RAPIDLY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A
REALLY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN US...PULLING SOME COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
WITH IT.  AS THIS SURFACE HIGH WORKS SOUTH...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
TURN SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO UPSLOPE AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN
A LITTLE.  LITTLE OR NO EFFECT EXPECTED WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAIN RANGES.  SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA...AND WARMER TEMPS RETURN TO ALL AREAS AGAIN.

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-191900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1200 PM MDT SAT MAY 19 2001

...THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ONE OR TWO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...
BENT...AND KIOWA COUNTIES.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
WALSENBURG TO LA JUNTA TO HASWELL.  WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...BUT FAIRLY WEAK WIND SHEAR...THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HAIL GREATER THAN 3/4 INCH IN
DIAMETER...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.  HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO WOULD APPRECIATE ANY REPORTS
OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ITS SPOTTERS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON.