Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
158 PM CST MON MAR 12 2001

MAIN FORECAST QUESTIONS ARE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WX POSSIBILITIES
INTO THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBILITY OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

AT 18Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.  A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO GEORGIA.  THERE WERE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS NORTHWARD...WITH
RAIN AND/OR FOG FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHWARD.  DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA HAD RISEN INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  NEW CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MOVING NORTHEAST.

AS OF LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SPC KEEPS ENTIRE FA IN A
SLIGHT RISK.  LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH GAVE US CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING.  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...JUST IN TIME
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SUNSHINE AND IN
TURN DECENT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
LI VALUES JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RUNNING FROM 0 TO -2.  STILL
EXPECT MAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PAH FA TO BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING...WITH AVN TAKING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF REGION BY
06Z TUE.  EXACT BREAK UP OF ZONES WILL BE DECIDED CLOSER TO PACKAGE
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT WILL HAVE AN EVENING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN THE
SOUTH.  WILL LIKELY REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS.

FOR TUESDAY...BELIEVE ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA...SO WILL REMOVE POPS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS BUT KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY.  WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY.

LATER INTO THE FORECAST...AVN AND MRF HAVE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN
AREAS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN ENTIRE AREA ON
THURSDAY.  BIG QUESTION IS...WILL RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT.  1000MB-500MB AND 1000MB-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT...WITH PRECIP MAINLY JUST EARLY ON FRIDAY.  FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY.

FWC AND MAV VALUES VERY SIMILAR FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS AND WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY.  WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER MAV VALUES TUE NIGHT...AND
WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING PACKAGE TEMPS BEYOND TUE NIGHT.

.PAH...NONE.

UTHLAUT