Tornado Warning 59, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
236 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2001

MAIN FCST CHALLENGES ARE THE SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT...LATER
POPS...AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SOUNDING IS RATHER DRY WITH A STEEP LAPSE
RATE...NEARLY ADIABATIC BETWEEN ABOUT 600 AND 425MB.  SFC BASED
CONVECTION IS IN THEORY POSSIBLE WITH MID 90S TEMPS...BUT
ENTRAINMENT WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...STILL EXPECT STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING LINE
OF TSTMS AS IT HITS HIGHER SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AROUND OFK.
LOTS OF DRY AIR AND WEAK SHEAR ABOVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION FAVOR
OUFLOW DOMINATED STORMS AND LINES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST
LIKELY EVENT.

SFC PRES GRADIENT IS DECREASING AND WILL LET WIND ADVSRY DROP WITH
ISSUANCE OF NEW ZONES.

LATER TONIGHT THE SFC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP OUT OF OUR SE
ZONES...BUT MOISTURE ABOVE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO LEAVE.  PWS ARE
TOO LOW TO SUGGEST SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...HOWEVER.

IN LATER PERIODS...BOTH ETA AND AVN HANG UP THE 850 MB FRONT AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THRU LATE WED.  WILL LEAVE
DECENT POPS ESPECIALLY IN FAR SRN ZONES...WITH SLIGHT POPS LATITUDE
OF OMA AND DRY FURTHER N.  TEMPS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WITH SUPPRESSED DIRURNAL RANGE ESPECIALLY OMA SOUTH AND TEMPS CLOSER
TO NGM MOS...AS AVN HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL RECENTLY.

AS NW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT...MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT LASTING WELL INTO THE EXTENDED.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WITH A RECOVERY BEGINNING BY THE
WEEKEND.  TROUGH RUNNING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHC OF PRECIP NEXT SUN NIGHT OR MON.

.OMA...NONE

POLLACK

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-190500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
527 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 446 IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PART OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ARE THOSE
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ALBION TO NORFOLK TO PENDER
LINE...BETWEEN 630 PM AND 2 AM.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.  THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  WIND SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

MEAD