Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
320 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2001

DEEP RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS L/W TROF DIGS
OFF THE W COAST. FURTHER E NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF MOVING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE TRACK
TO THE ESE...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MS LATER THIS EVENING...THEN INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF AL EARLY WED. NEAR THE SFC CONTINUED
FLOW FROM THE S WILL ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND ACROSS
THE CWFA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5 THROUGH
AROUND 18Z WED. CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SW GA AND NE AL
MAY SAG SW LATER TONIGHT MAINLY FROM DIURNAL COOLING AND EXITING JET
TO THE E...ALLOWING FOR BETTER CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE
TRACK WITH LITTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E...WHICH HELPED GIVE WAY
TO A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS MAINLY N OF CWFA EARLIER TODAY FROM LAST
VORT.

LATER IN THE WEEK DEEPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO GIVING WAY TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR
PRECIP THROUGH EARLY SAT. FOG MAY BECOME A SLIGHT PROBLEM THU AND
FRI NIGHTS MOSTLY INLAND AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
TEND TO GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR WED DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEN RETURN TO NEAR GUIDANCE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN
AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO A DEEPER RETURN FLOW AND A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...MODERATE SLY FLOW THROUGH WED WITH RESULTANT 3-5 FT SEAS
...SUBSIDING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
PERIOD WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.  EXPECT ONLY A SCT SHRA/TSRA
OVER MARINE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.

FIRE...NO CONCERNS THROUGH WED AS SLY WINDS KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES.

/32

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MOB WU 065/082 063/083 060 32451
PNS EU 066/080 064/081 061 32441
DTS EU 067/077 065/075 063 32442
GZH TU 062/078 059/082 058 32672
2R0 TU 064/083 057/083 056 32671
61A TU 062/079 058/082 057 32561

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.