Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2001

WILL ISSUE BRAND NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY 11 PM CST...TO REPLACE
CURRENT FFA.  THE NEW WATCH WILL BE VALID THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
AND WILL INCLUDE ALL OF OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COS AND
THE NW PORTION OF THE INTERIOR SW ALABAMA COS.  LATEST RADAR
PCPN ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT GROUNDS ARE ALREADY VERY SATURATED AND
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ADVECTING SW-NE OVER THE SAME AREAS AGAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL ONLY AID THE PROBLEM.  LATEST PEAK AT WS_ETA
AND 18Z NCEP ETA HINTS AT ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES WITH HIER AMOUNTS
LOCALLY.  LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONING OF
UPSTREAM FEATURES\PROCESSES THAT ARE COMING TOGETHER TO GENERATE
HEAVY PCPN.

UPDATED HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK ...AND ZONES WILL COME SOON AFTER
ISSUANCE OF NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  MENTION OF SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS ALSO NOTED FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

23/MEDLIN

.MOB...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALZ039-051>055 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MSZ067-075>076-078>079 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

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ALZ039-051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-040300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2001

...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
APPROACH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...

A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OLD MEXICO
WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE OVER LOUISIANA BY SUNRISE.  THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY SUNSET.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
...ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WILL KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT HIGH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...AND
POSSIBLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE GROUND HEATS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  UPPER AIR WINDS WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY THREAT AT
THIS TIME IS BELIEVED TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.  OF PARTICULAR INTEREST DUE TO THE DEVELOPING FLOOD
SITUATION...IS TO THOSE EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN WAYNE...PERRY AND
GREENE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THOSE ALSO IN CHOCTAW
AND MARENGO COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  OFFICIALS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MOBILE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB.