Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2001

STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A S/W AND UPR JET STREAK OVER THE
NE GOMEX IS VERY APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING. ASSOC AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM FL WEST COAST ALL THE WAY TO SERN
LA...WITH TS LINE FORMING FROM FROM TLH SOUTH INTO THE GOMEX.
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS IS MOISTENING ON SCHEDULE W/ XMR
AT 1.61 AND TBW APPROACHING 1.8. RAPID MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CONTINUED SW FLOW AROUND 15 KTS OFF THE DECK AT
XMR...SO NOT CONFIDENT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND
NORTH OF THE CAPE. SHOULD SEE A SEA BREEZE SOUTH THOUGH...WITH
INLAND PROGRESSION GREATEST IN MARTIN CO. EXPECT BULK OF TSTM
ACTIVITY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ASSOC WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OR CURRENT GOMEX CONVECTION ITSELF. THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE PENINSULA ATTM...AS DEBRIS FRM GOMEX
STORMS IS PUSHING NE INTO NRN FL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING
AND INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FRM THE
WEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON EAST COAST SEA BREEZE (ESPECIALLY
SOUTH) FOR POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH STORMS FRM WEST. BOTTOM LINE IS
HIGH POPS IN LIKELY CAT SEEM EASILY JUSTIFIED AND CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. SEE NO REASON TO U/D ATTM.

MARINE...WILL TWEAK WINDS IN NRN WATERS TO REFLECT PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ON SEA BREEZE FORMATION...AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN SW
FOR THE MOST PART.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...GITTINGER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
012100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1149 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2001

...AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS LIKELY WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED...

AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE HAS QUICKLY STREAMED NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
1130 AM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM OCALA TO FORT MYERS. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE AND SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY. DRIVERS
SHOULD REMEMBER TO REDUCE SPEED WHEN DRIVING IN HEAVY RAIN...AND
NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS A WATER-COVERED ROADWAY.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. SMALL HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
TODAY.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE SHOULD ANY LOCAL
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR FLOODING BE ISSUED.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

GITTINGER