Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EST THU MAR 29 2001

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...LEADING EDGE OF SVR CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
THROUGH INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN TRAILING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. IMPRESSIVE LINE OF
STORMS TRAILING BACK INTO CNTRL GULF. WILL HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS GULF CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIN
OVER CNTRL/SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MESO-ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CNTRL GULF S/W AND SHOWS VORT MAX MOVING TWD THE SW FL
COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES IN THE 03Z-05Z
TIME FRAME. MESO-ETA PROGS ANOTHER VORT CENTER TO TRACK ACROSS THE S
FL FROM 09Z-12Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PD...WILL NOWCAST EARLY EVENING PERIOD WITH RADAR TRENDS AND
THINK S/W ENERGY APPROACHING WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS CNTRL AND SRN
ZONES OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FRI...LESS S/W ENERGY NOTED BY THE MODELS BUT ETA/AVN STILL KEEP
DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL FL WITH DECENT SW 30-35 KT H8-H7
FLOW. NGM BACKS OFF ON POPS AND RAISES HIGH TEMPS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
CLOSER TWD ETA/AVN SOLUTION AND KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS. MAY NUDGE
TEMPS UP JUST A BIT BUT NOT BUY OFF ON NGMS UPPER 80S JUST YET.

FRI NGT/SAT...ETA AND AVN IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING STRIPE OF
QPF ACROSS CNTRL FL...POSSIBLY FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL LOW LVL
BOUNDARY. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS CNTRL FL WITH
ETA SHOWING H8-H7 FLOW FROM SW AT 25-35 KNOTS. NGM DROPS POPS OFF TO
30 PCT BY SAT WITH AVN AROUND 40 PCT. WILL LEAN TWD THE HIGHER AVN
POPS WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ETA MODEL FIELDS.

SAT NGT/EXTENDED...WILL STICK CLOSE TO AVN/MRF WHICH KEEP CHC OF
PRECIP THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. SO
MON-THU WILL BE DRY AND WARM.

MARINE...STRONG SSE WINDS VEER TO SW ON FRI AND DIMINISH BY SAT
AFTN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT.

PRELIM...
DAB TB 062/082 064/082 063 15763
MCO TT 062/083 066/083 065 15864
MLB TT 062/084 067/083 067 15864

.MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
143 PM EST THU MAR 29 2001

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1226 PM    OAK HILL                  FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/29/01   VOLUSIA                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER

1235 PM    SAINT CLOUD               FL   .75 INCH HAIL$
03/29/01   OSCEOLA

1215 PM    ORLANDO                   FL   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/29/01   ORANGE