Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

FCST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RN EVENTS WITHIN A VERY COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN.

EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AGAIN A BIT SLOWER ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.  AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED...THIS PROBLEM IS CONSISTENT WITH A DIGGING VERY
LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS.  FIRST BIG S/W HAS MOVED N OF THE
CWA...ANOTHER APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING CLOSE ON ITS HEALS...PER THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS HAS RE-IGNIGHTED SOME ACTIVITY ACRS NRN
IL WITH A MOVEMENT NE INTO THE CWA.  ANOTHER S/W OVER NEB IS PROGD
TO CLIP WRN WI ON ITS WAY NE TODAY AND DRAG A TAIL OF S/W ENERGY ACRS
THE CWA TONIGHT. IT IS ALL THESE LEADING PIECES OF ENERGY THAT MAKE
TIMING OF PCPN EXTREMEMLY DIFFICULT.  IT APPEARS THE WRN CWA WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN THRU SAT DUE TO THE ADJACENCY OF THE
FRONT. THE EAST MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT AFTER THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  WILL THEREFORE END UP GOING MORE CHCY IN
THE EAST AND LIKELY IN THE WEST THUR THE FCST PDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN RSNBL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A NICE CENTER BY MIDDAY SAT OVER NRN WI OR NE MN. THE ATTENDANT
CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH...EXITING THE EAST SAT EVENING. THE HUGE
UPR LOW...HOWEVER...IS HANGING WAY BACK AND DOESN/T COME THROUGH
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  UNDER THAT UPPER LOW HOWEVER...IS A LOT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ONLY BRING A SML
THREAT OF SHOWERS.

TEMPS ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF CDFNT.  DUE TO THE SLOWER
EVOLUTION...WILL BUMP TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.

.MKX...NONE.

DAVIS