Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT MON APR 23 2001

FCST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON STRONG WINDS TODAY...PCPN CHCS AND DEGREE
OF THUNDER FOR TODAY...TEMPS.

WARM FRONT HAS BLASTED THROUGH THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR
60S EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF LOW OVER WRN IA.  LOW TAKES A
TRACK NE...INTO NE WI BY LATE THIS AFTN.  PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FOR
TODAY COME FM ARKANSAS WHICH SAW TEMPS NEAR 80. WE SHOULD GET IN
DRY SLOT AND SOME CLEARING TODAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO DO ITS THING
AND PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S.  THIS DRY SLOT AND THE LOWER LEVEL
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES REACHING INTO WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER WINDY DAY TO THE CWA.  THUS WILL POST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CWA TODAY.  ONLY PROBLEM IS IF CLEARING ISN/T
REALIZED THIS MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE LIMITED...KEEPING WINDS
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.  EITHER WAY...A WINDY DAY.

THE OTHER QUESTION FOR TODAY IS THREAT FOR STORMS.  AS USUAL..SOME
FACTORS WORKING FOR THEM...SOME AGAINST.  ETA CAPES PROGD TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 1000J/KG BY EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL LIMIT STRONG
DEVELOPMENT.  IF WE CAN GET TEMPS HIGHER THAN PROGD...WHICH LOOKS
LIKELY IN THE EAST...AND DWPNTS IN THE MID 60S AS THE ETA PROGS...NOT
AS CERTAIN...THEN OUR THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS GETS BETTER.  LLV
CONVERGENCE IS BETTER THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THESE DRY SLOT EVENTS
LATELY.  VORT ADV AT H5 IS SOMEWHAT NEUTRALIZED BY THE COINCIDENT CAA
SEEN AT H8-H7.  SOME WEAK OMEGA IS STILL EEKED OUT AT 18Z AND THIS
COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE LOOKING SFC FEATURES COULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE EAST OF MADISON. LOOK AT NEW 06Z MESO-ETA SUPPORTS PULLING
MENTION OF THUNDER IN WRN CWA AS COOLER DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE
PUNCHING IN SOONER.  ALSO...MESO-ETA NOW DEVELOPING BAND OF STORMS
ALMOST ENTIRELY SE OF CWA.  WL TRIM POPS TO CHC IN THE EAST AS A
RESULT.

WRAP AROUND SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CAA IN FULL FORCE. WL
ADJUST PREV FCST TEMPS DOWN TONIGHT INTO TUES GIVEN COLDER LOOKING
TEMPS COMING IN. BRING S/W RIDGING BRINGS CLEARING ON TUE WITH
ANOTHER WEAK S/W TROF BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. PREV
FCST HAS THIS TIMED WELL.

.MKX...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ALL OF MKX CWA ZNS...46..47..51..52..
                                                  56>60..62>70.

DAVIS

WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067-231700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CDT MON APR 23 2001

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM DUBUQUE TO VIOLA WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 1030 AM. THE STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTED
WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR. HOWEVER YOU SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH SPRING GREEN BY 11 AM AND MADISON BY NOON. THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

KURIMSKI

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-232200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT MON APR 23 2001

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
...FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

THREAT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A
STRONG JET STREAM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON.

NJ

WIZ046-047-051-056>059-062-063-067-231800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1130 AM CDT MON APR 23 2001

A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN
DELLS TO ARGYLE IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST NEAR
40 MPH. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR. BUT THE STORMS ARE INCREASING IN
INTENSITY...SO YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE COVER.

THESE STORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 1130 AM AND 1 PM.

NJ