Tornado Warning 15, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...MAINLY ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR MULESHOE...TO PLAINVIEW...TO WHEELER. FRONT STILL
CREEPING SOUTH AND EASTWARD AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND RETREAT SLOWLY BACK INTO THE
PANHANDLE. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AND DRYLINE...MAINLY
EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE IS REALIZED
AND H7 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS BEING
PRIMARY THREAT. SEE SPC SWODY1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON HEELS OF
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD
ALSO SEE DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CWA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY
AS EASTERLY SFC WINDS PROVIDE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...THEREBY
WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALSO
EXPECTED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL RETAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING/NIGHTTIME STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AND ACTIVITY POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO CWA FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO ENSUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

PRELIMINARY:
FRIONA      59/89/61/87 1121
TULIA       61/89/61/88 2121
CHILDRESS   69/87/66/87 4121
BROWNFIELD  66/93/64/91 1121
LUBBOCK     65/91/64/89 2121
ASPERMONT   69/90/67/89 3111

.LUB...NONE.

21/11

TXZ021>044-051900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CAP ROCK ESCARPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS...EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND TURNING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS WITH HEIGHT....SOME OF THE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LUB.