Tornado Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
235 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY
AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A ELKHART KANSAS TO CLOVIS AND HOBBS NEW
MEXICO TO SANDERSON AT 19Z. DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIXING TO THE
EAST THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WAITING FOR THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
TO CATCH UP TO IT AND FINALLY GIVE IT A PUSH TO THE EAST. IMPRESSIVE
DUST PLUME EVIDENT FROM SOUTH OF EL PASO TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY GUSTED TO 93 MPH
AT GUADALUPE PASS WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
FALLS UP TO 5 MB/3 HOURS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BOMB
OUT OVER EASTERN COLORADO...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA.

EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND
RAPIDLY RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50-60 MPH. IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
WITH TUCUMCARI AND WHITE SANDS PROFILER SHOWING 60 KNOTS AT 70H AND
110 KNOTS AT 50H AT WHITE SANDS IN REGION OF THE DRY PUNCH. WITH THE
STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH RISK OF TORNADOES. EXPECT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
EAST OF THE CAPROCK BY 23Z WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
INVADING THE SOUTH PLAINS. WILL CHANGE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A
DUST STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AS PLUME FROM
MEXICO ALONG WITH DUST FROM SOURCE REGION OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS CAUSES VISIBILITIES TO CRATER. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OFF THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING.

BENIGN PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH AND GUSTY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES.

PRELIMINARY:
FRIONA/TULIA         42/75/45/80  1000   CHILDRESS 53/78/54/85  3-00
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK   46/78/48/83  1000   ASPERMONT 56/79/55/88  3-00

.LUB...DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 05Z GENERALLY WEST OF THE CAPROCK
       HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 05Z EAST OF THE CAPROCK.

TINSLEY

TXZ021>044-061900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DRYLINE WAS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR THE STATE
LINE. THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO
WEST TEXAS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.