Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2001

CDFNT ACRS NWRN MO EVIDENT AS FINE LINE ON RADAR WITH HIGHEST SFC
MOISTURE CNVG ALNG FNT JUST N OF MCI.  CDFNT SHOULD CONT MOVG SEWD
WITH 3-4 MB 3 HR PRESSURE RISES BHND FNT IN SERN NEBRASKA.  MOST OF
THE CURRENT PCPN IS POST FRONTAL AHD OF SHRTWV TROF EXTENDING FM WRN
MN SW THRU NRN CO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ISOLATED CELLS OVR ERN IA
ALNG FNT.  WL GO WITH HIGHER AVN...MAV GUIDANCE POPS TDA WITH BOTH
ETA/AVN CONTG TO DEPICT STG 850-700 MB QN FRCG ALNG FNT AS IT PUSHES
RAPIDLY SEWD THRU CWFA AND STG 500-300 MB QS FRCG AHD OF STG SHRTWV
TROF ROTATING THRU IA AND NRN MO S OF NRN PLAINS UPR LOW.  ETA ALSO
HAS STG UPR DIVERGENCE OVR MUCH OF THE CWFA ARND 18Z WITH LATERAL
COUPLING OF STG UPR LVL JT STRKS.  POTENTIAL OF SVR CONVECTION...
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ALNG FNT E AND S OF STL EARLY THIS AFTN AS ETA
FCSTS STG SFC MOISTURE CNVG ALNG FAST MOVG CDFNT WITH SFC DWPTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S JUST AHD OF FNT OVR SERN MO SRN IL.  18Z SFC BASED
LI VALUES DCRS TO -8 SE OF STL WITH SFC-700 MB DELTA THETA E VALUES
OF -25 AT 18Z SE OF STL FCST BY ETA.  PCPN SHOULD END BY THIS EVNG
WITH STG LOW LVL CAA BHND FNT AND WITH MOST OF THE WRPARND TYPE
MOISTURE N OF CWFA TGT AND THU...ALTHOUGH NGM DOES HAVE FAIRLY HI
VALUES OF 850 MB MOISTURE LT TGT AND THU OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE
AREA.  WL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SCT COLD AIR SC ON THU OVR UIN AND STL
AREAS.  SHOULD SEE STG SFC WNDS LTR TDA THRU THU ESPECIALLY OVR NERN
MO W CNTRL IL WITH STG PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
MOVG THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS REGION AND SFC RDG BLDG FM
THE NRN RCKYS SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

.STL...NONE
GKS

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-242200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
730 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2001

THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER A PORTION
OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  THE HIGH RISK
AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROLLA MISSOURI TO
PALMYRA ILLINOIS.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE HIGH RISK REGION ARE
ST LOUIS...FREDERICKTOWN...PRAIRIE DU ROCHER...BELLEVILLE...SALEM
AND VANDALIA.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA.  THIS AREA IS AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS A LINE EXTENDING FROM FLORENCE MISSOURI TO MT STERLING ILLINOIS.
SOME CITIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDE COLUMBIA...JEFFERSON
CITY...BOWLING GREEN AND PITTSFIELD.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE BY NOON.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ST LOUIS.  THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...

A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

GKS

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM DAILY...AND WILL
BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.  FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON A PARTICULAR
THREAT...MAKE SURE TO REFER TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND THE ACTUAL
WATCH...WARNING...OR ADVISORY PRODUCT.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-250000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2001

THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
LITCHFIELD TO COLLINSVILLE TO FARMINGTON.  SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
HIGH RISK INCLUDE GREENVILLE...CARLYLE LAKE...SALEM AND CHESTER
ILLINOIS AND STE GENEVIEVE IN MISSOURI.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH
RISK AREA.  THIS AREA IS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS A LINE EXTENDING FROM
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

BRITT

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM DAILY...AND WILL
BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.  FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON A PARTICULAR
THREAT...MAKE SURE TO REFER TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND THE ACTUAL
WATCH...WARNING...OR ADVISORY PRODUCT.