Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TUESDAY.

MCS THAT DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS BEEN
EXPANDING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS STL INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY THAT LAY FROM WESTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AT 07Z. 850-300 MB THICKNESS TAKES MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN DURING REST OF NIGHT AND INTO MORNING
HOURS TODAY. THIS CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON
ETA/MESOETA. ETA ALSO HANDLING LOW LEVEL JET IN PLAINS WELL SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD ETA FOR FORECAST.

BEST RH...UPWARD MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ALL INDICATE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH THE MCS HEADING TOWARD KY THIS MORNING.
WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER RH DRIES OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH TODAY...AND MCS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT TODAY. HOWEVER WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE
IN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FORCE WARM
FRONT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THE
FRONT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF KY INTO TONIGHT. THUS
ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE LOWER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH TIME SECTIONS
SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF UPWARD MOTION OVER AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

AS FRONT MOVES NORTH OF FA ON TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FA...DEVELOPING IN VERY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR.

WITH MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO AVN MOS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...AS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH.

.SDF...NONE.
SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
526 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS
WERE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOST NUMEROUS THIS
MORNING BUT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED TODAY.

SCHOLZ