Severe Thunderstorm Warning 539, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2001

WELL DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TRACKING TO THE SE INTO NRN MS.
AIR MASS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 AND ABOVE
5000 JAN 12Z SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...CONVECTION HAS LACKED SUFFICIENT TRIGGER THIS AFTERNOON.
BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION NOTED IN OUTFLOW FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. DUE TO CONDITION OF AIR MASS AND POSSIBILITY
OF SWD DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW FORCING...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS NRN
AND CENTRAL ZONES. ALSO POSSIBILITY THAT MCS RAIN AREA MAY REFORM
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT NE AND E CENTRAL COUNTIES.

GENERAL UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING SWD ACROSS REGION AGAIN WED. MODELS DIFFER ON
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SOLUTION. AVN HAS MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND PUSHES SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITION MUCH
FARTHER S. LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY HANGING IN THE MID 70S. ETA PUSHES SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD
CENTRAL ZONES WED AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH WED
EVENING WHILE THE AVN CONTINUES THE SWD PUSH AND SHIFTS THE WIND
SHIFT INTO SRN MS BY WED EVENING. WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY AND NEXT
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR WED.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES...SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODEL QPF FIELDS LOOK OK WITH AREAL COVERAGE 0.5 INCH OR
LESS FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR WED...ALTHOUGH LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD
EASILY EXCEED 1 INCH.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THU NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT WITH WRN EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH
EDGING INTO THE AREA. HEIGHTS INCREASING AGAIN INTO MON.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 75/95/75/96 2423
MEI 74/95/73/95 3423

.JAN...
MS...NONE
LA...NONE
AR...NONE

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
154 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING FROM THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED NUMBER OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO BECOME
SEVERE. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH...ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI INTO TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES...FROM NEAR 105 ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...TO NEAR 110 DEGREES OVER THE DELTA REGION OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

IF YOU MUST WORK OUTDOORS...TRY TO DO YOUR WORK DURING THE EARLY
MORNING OR LATE EVENING HOURS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND GET IN
THE SHADE AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.