Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

FCST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES AND AFFECTS ON TEMPS
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS MIDWEST.

W/V IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
CENTRAL LAKE MICH WITH A SERIES OF S/W'S ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
ONE S/W OF INTEREST MOVING THRU CENT MN. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CENTER ACROSS EXTREME SE MN/NE IA. MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP SHOWING BAND OF PERISISTANT RAINS EXTENDING FROM CENT MN THRU
CENT IA AND INTO CENT/SRN IL....JUST SOUTH OF A SPI-MTO LINE.

MODELS SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT S/W OF INTEREST DROPPING SOUTH FROM CENT MN WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW INTO SE MN/NE IA. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP SE
TOWARD AREA TODAY. DECENT OMEGA DEVELOPS ACROSS MOST OF CENT IL BY
MIDDAY TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
WIDESPREAD QPF NOTED ON BOTH ETA/AVN LOOKS RSBL WITH THIS SCENARIO.
WILL GO CATAGORICAL ON PCPN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS PCPN TO SW
OF AREA SHIFTS NE ACROSS AREA AND ENHANCES AHEAD OF S/W. IMBEDDED
THUNDER ALSO STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS S/W
SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 06Z SUN...MOSTLY ENDING PCPN ACROSS AREA
DURING EVE. YET ANOTHER S/W...WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS TODAY...DROPS
DOWN FOR SUN. THIS ONE WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME
WEAK OMEGA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR ANOTHER CHANCE PCPN.
WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ANOTHER S/W INDICATED FOR LATER IN THE
PERIOD ON MON...WILL KEEP DRY FCST FOR NOW FOR MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF PCPN AND
CLOUDS. TEMPS TODAY LIKELY TO STRUGGLE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
EXPECTED. MAY NEED TO DROP TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH...ESP NORTH.
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS LOOKS RSBL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS AS UPPER LOW MAKES SLOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM
AREA.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI RB 062/049 068/049 073 36+44
PIA RB 061/048 067/048 072 36+44
DEC RB 061/050n 068/048 072 36+44
CMI RB 061/048 067/047 072 36+44
MTO RB 062/050 070/050 073 36+44
LWV RB 065/053 072/051 075 36744

.ILX...NONE.

FRIEDERS

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.
THEREFORE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PLAHMER