Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

SHORT-TERM FCST CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH SFC
BOUNDARY ACRS REGION THRU TONIGHT...THEN ENDING OF PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPS STARTING LATER TMRW.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN SYNOPTIC FNT ACRS CRL IL. HARD TO PICK
THIS FEATURE OUT AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST FM EARLIER
CONVECTION. AIRMASS SOUTH OF FNT IS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH LATEST RUC
SHOWING LOWEST LI/S (TO -6) AND BEST MOIST CONV IN AN AXIS FM SRN MO
TO SRN IL. WL NEED TO CONT TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR TSRA/SVR DVLPMNT
AS AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. QUESTION IS...WHERE WL
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FNT GO TONIGHT...AS THIS WL BE KEY PLAYER IN HEAVY
RAINFALL LOCATION TONIGHT. ETA IS FARTHEST NORTH...PUSHING WF INTO
NRN IL BY THIS EVE. HARD TO BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO WITH CURRENT
LOCATION OF FNT AND NUMEROUS WAVES/CONVECTION TENDING TO KEEP
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. ONE WAVE ANALYZED AT 18Z NR UIN...ANOTHER
WEST OF KC. WL GO WITH FARTHER SOUTH DEPICTION OF AVN. EXPECT OFF
AND ON RAIN OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY HEAVY...AS MOIST CONV AND HIGH
VALUES OF PRECIP WATER COMBINE WITH GOOD LIFTING MECHANISMS. ALREADY
HAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF IL RIVER
AS FAR SOUTH AS FULTON AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. BASED ON FNT LOCATION
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...WL ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF SPI-MTO LINE. THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
LAST NIGHT/EARLIER TODAY THAT LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH HAD...SO WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DESPITE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES IN THREE HOURS.

MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SAGGING THE FNT SLOWLY SWD INTO
SRN IL BY LATE TMRW. THIS IN RESPONSE TO S/WV ENERGY FM NW. BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN REMAIN ALONG SFC FNT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A UIN TO HUF
LINE DURING THE AFT AND EVE HOURS. WL NEED TO TRIM BACK PCPN
WORDING...ESP ACRS NW ILX CWA.

TEMPS TRICKY WITH BOUNDARY ACRS AREA. WL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO GOING FCST ATTM. DAYTIME HIGHS WL BE VERY DEPENDANT ON AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE/EXTENT OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

MODELS STILL SHOWING GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE
SEVERAL S/WS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH ONE MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...TO BRING A CHC OF PCPN THROUGH
THE DAY. THEN A WEAK S/W MOVES IN FOR MONDAY. NOT REAL IMPRESSED
WITH CHC OF PCPN WITH IT...BUT WILL STICK WITH PERSISTANCE THAT FAR
OUT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI TB 065/075 057/073 054 26873
PIA EB 062/072 055/070 055 26963
DEC TB 065/075 057/073 055 26873
CMI TB 064/073 056/071 054 26873
MTO TB 068/077 058/072 057 26784
LWV TB 070/081 064/077 058 26684

.ILX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ILZ027>031-036-037 THROUGH TONIGHT.

FISHER/PLAHMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE THE EMPHASIS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

KETCHAM