Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CST WED MAR 14 2001

FCST FOCUS ON INTENSE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
AID IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THEN ON WINDS/PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE ALONG WITH TEMPS COME TOMORROW.

WILL LEAN TOWARD AN AVN/ETA MIX THIS TIME AROUND BASED ON MORNING
UPPER AIR WHICH INDICATED STRONG HT FALLS ACROSS UT/ID ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH.

LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWED STRONG HT FALLS ACROSS IDAHO INTO UTAH WITH
100KT JET DIGGING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW CENTER MAY BE
LOCATED ACROSS SW WYOMING AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM CONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY MORNING 850MB UPPER AIR SHOWED
TRUE GULF TAP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. CURRENT PROFILERS DO SHOW
20-30KT OF SOUTH FLOW AT 850MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AND
SKIES HAVE BECOME BKN AT 4000-5000FT REFLECTING SOME MOISTENING OF
THIS LAYER.  MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC MOISTENING IS TAKING PLACE WITH
LOWER 50F DEWPOINTS NOW SET TO INVADE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT....AXIS OF LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET NOW MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TOWARD EVENING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS AXIS OF
LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ACT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z.  AT
THIS TIME IT WOULD APPEAR THAT LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE THE SFC
TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR HUT TO SLN TO EMP WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS FEATURE. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM 550-800MB HELPS
PRODUCE NEAR 1000J/KG OF CAPE WHILE WET BULB ZEROS OF 7000-8000FT
SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE...INTENSE UPPER DIV
COMBINED WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. FEEL THAT THE MODEL THAT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE UPPER
SYSTEM IS THE ETA AND WILL FOLLOW THE IDEA OF AN AXIS OF PRECIP
PIVOTING INTO CENTRAL KS EARLY TOMORROW. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH SFC TEMPS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S. APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD EXIST DESPITE THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...APPEARS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUSTAINED AT 30-40
MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WOULD COMBINE WITH ANY SNOW THAT
WOULD FALL TO PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS. THIS FACTOR ALONE
WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WARNING FOR NOW TO AVOID HANDCUFFING MID SHIFT SINCE
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  LOWS
ARE AN AFTERTHOUGHT AND WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 SE TO MIDDLE 30S
CENTRAL.

TOMORROW...BASED ON THE ETA DEPICTION...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS WITH
CONVECTIVE PRECIP INDICATED UNDER THIS UPPER LOW.  IT IS THE SEASON
FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS UNDERNEATH UPPER LOWS...AND HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY
AT THE SOUNDINGS/CRITICAL THICKNESSES CAREFULLY AND AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID THROUGH
15Z-18Z WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40.  MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO REVIEW THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS UNDER THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT OR THE
MORE THREATENING POSSIBILITY OF A MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF ANY
POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE OF PRECIP WHICH WILL PUT MORE OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW...FOR
NOW WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL.  WILL WORD STEADY TEMPS IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL AND 40S SE.

THURS NIGHT...BASED ON AN ETA DEPICTION...PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE CWA
BY 00Z WITH BLUSTERY CONDS AFTER.  OTHERWISE PTCLDY WITH NEAR
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKS FINE. FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH PTSUNNY SKIES AND
CONTINUED WEAK CAA/NORTH WINDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD MIDDLE 40S CENTRAL
AND 45 TO 50 ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED...
AVN IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING NEXT UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH SAT AND
KEEPING IT PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF AND MRF ARE SLOWER
AND ALSO INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.  WILL
LOWER MAX TEMPS AND INDICATE AND SNOW THREAT CENTRAL AND RAIN/SNOW
SOUTH COME THIS WEEKEND.

FCSTID = 11/CO
ICT   45  45  25  47 /  50  80   0   0
HUT   43  43  25  47 /  50  80   0   0
EWK   45  45  25  47 /  50  80   0   0
EQA   47  47  25  47 /  50  80   0   0
WLD   47  47  25  47 /  50  80   0   0
RSL   39  39  23  45 /  60  80   0   0
GBD   39  39  23  45 /  60  80   0   0
SLN   40  40  23  45 /  60  80   0   0
MPR   41  41  23  45 /  60  80   0   0
CFV   49  55  31  47 /  40  70  40   0
CNU   49  54  E31  47 /  40  70  40   0
K88   49  54  31  47 /  40  70  40   0

.ICT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR ZONES
KSZ032>033...KSZ047>051.