Tornado Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD THE AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM WICHITA
FALLS TO BROWNWOOD LINE AT 515 PM...WILL SWEEP EAST THIS EVENING
AFFECTING THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS BETWEEN 1 AND 5Z...AND THE WACO
AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 7Z. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKING THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT SO EVEN
THROUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
STORMS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.  58

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD AS COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE HAVE BEGUN ADVANCING TOWARD N TEXAS.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE AND DYNAMIC
PARAMETERS PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONLY REAL QUESTION
REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE MOISTURE RETURN FOR SEVERE STORMS ALL
THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE METROPLEX AND THESE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO RISE ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND 15KTS. LATEST AWIPS MSAS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE (20 G/KG) AND STRONGEST LI (-6) FROM NEAR KABI TO KSJT.
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS WILL FORM AS SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG
AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND TURNING THE LOWEST LEVELS...BUT THEN WE EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME MORE LINEAR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
WILL ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

STRONGLY DIGGING LOW WILL SLOW THE END OF THE PRECIP...AT LEAST THE
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS AGAIN TOMORROW...BEFORE PRECIP LEAVES TOMORROW NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS
INTO N TEXAS.

IN THE EXTENDED...COOL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS...KEEPING N TEXAS DRY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 80
DFW   57  61  48  72 / 100  50   0   0
ACT   59  64  50  74 / 100  50   0   0

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-130330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING TEXAS FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...GULF
MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 4 PM ALONG THE DRYLINE
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. JET STREAM WINDS OF UP TO 100
MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE LIKELY...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. BY LATE EVENING AN
EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON ATTENDING ANY ATHLETIC EVENTS OR OTHER
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
35...PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS. BE READY TO
QUICKLY MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY BY 4 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF A BOWIE
TO COMANCHE LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX AND WACO BY
8 PM...AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 10 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0525 PM    1 SE POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE  TX   2.75 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   PALO PINTO                     REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0534 PM    SIDNEY                    TX   1 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   COMANCHE                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
657 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0637 PM    5 NW GRAFORD              TX   .88 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   PALO PINTO                     REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 PM    PRIDDY                    TX   .75 INCH HAIL
10/12/01   MILLS                          REPORTED BY FIRE AND
                                          RESCUE.