Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONTINUED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.

MODELS AGAIN PRETTY CLOSE ON OVERALL FEATURES HOWEVER FEEL ETA
HANDLING CURRENT SFC AND MID LEVEL FEATURES BETTER THIS RUN.

CURRENTLY MCS/WIND EVENT SPREADING INTO FA AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR
DEGREE OF MORNING MENTION AND WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

LOOKS LIKE SAME STORY/DIFFERENT DAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION ACROSS FA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
STRONG CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN TO CHARGE THROUGH MOST OF FA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
WILL THEN AGAIN BE A BREAK DURING DAY IN SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WAVE/
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR TO RECHARGE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH
FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP. BY AFTERNOON MAIN ACTION INITIALLY LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR WEST IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FIRST IN LINE
TO FEEL ASSIST FROM SHORT WAVE. SO FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER LATE NIGHT SHOW. ONLY QUESTION REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTH
WHERE BOTH ETA AND AVN INDICATING WK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES ALONG WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH  WITH REMAINDER LIMITED TO NIGHTTIME WITH LACK OF
BOUNDARIES AND HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS. CURRENT RAINFALL BY 88-D
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM AN INCH TO A INCH AND A HALF. CONVECTION
MOVING AT 35KT AND WITH GENERAL DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AM NOT
ANTICIPATING AND FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH SIMILAR SCENARIO
SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT AND PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE NO CHOICE
BUT TO PUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK IN FOR TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVR FORECAST AREA AND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON TSRA FOR SATURDAY.

WITH WATCH EXPIRATION TIME OF 10Z WILL HOLD OFF ON ZONE ISSUANCE
UNTIL THEN TO SIMPLIFY MATTERS UNLESS WATCH IS CANCELLED EARLY.

.FGF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALLEY CITY
TO HILLSBORO TO BEMIDJI LINE.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS
1131 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2001

...LATE STORM REPORTS...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    2 S ST THOMAS             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   PEMBINA

0730 PM    5 NW GRAFTON              ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   WALSH

0745 PM    3 NW CRYSTAL              ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   PEMBINA

0800 PM    2 NW HALMA                MN   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   KITTSON                        1 BIG PINE TREE DOWN, 3
                                          INCH DIAMATER BRANCHES
                                          DOWN

0815 PM    8 NE MINTO                ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   WALSH                          NUMEROUS 2 INCH DIAMETER
                                          BRANCHES DOWN

0930 PM    URBANA                    ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   BARNES

0930 PM    JELLE                     MN   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   BELTRAMI                       2 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES
                                          DOWN

0945 PM    20 S BAUDETTE             MN   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   LAKE OF THE WOODS              TREES DOWN

0945 PM    20 S BAUDETTE             MN   1 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   LAKE OF THE WOODS

1000 PM    11 SSE BAUDETTE           MN   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   LAKE OF THE WOODS              2 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES
                                          DOWN

1045 PM    ANGUS                     MN   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   POLK                           3 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES
                                          DOWN

1115 PM    14 SW THIEF RIVER FALLS   MN   1 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   PENNINGTON

1130 PM    3 NW RED LAKE FALLS       MN   2 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   RED LAKE

0145 AM    2 SE GREENVIEW            MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/01   POLK

0200 AM    SYRE                      MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/19/01   NORMAN

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