Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2001

FORECAST COMPLICATED INTO WEEKEND WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DIVGERING SOLUTIONS AS TIME PROGRESSES.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT THIS
TIME WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH. NOTE PCPN AXIS ABOUT 100NM N
FORECAST LAST FEW RUNS. HOWEVER, IF MODELS CORRECT SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
RAPID DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AS WAA AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN
ON 290+ SURFACES. PRECIP WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TODAY AND DIMINISH
FROM NORTH SOME AS VORT MOVES DOWN EAST SIDE WEAK RIDGE TO OUR W AND
A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE TENN VALLEY AND WORKS VERY SLOWLY
SOUTH...THIS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO HIGH MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTH.  WE DESTABALIZE SOME SO WILL KEEP TRW IN TODAY.

TONIGHT. WILL SEE DYNAMICS AND FRONT SINK SOUTH. SO WILL LOWER POPS
TO MINS NORTH AND HIGHEST CSG-AGS. NEAR GUIDANCE ON LOWS AND POPS.

WEDNESDAY. NEXT WAVE MOVES THRU RIDGE, WHICH BUILDS AND FORECAST
WAMUP BEGINS. ANOTHER WAA ISENTROPIC RAIN EVENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TRW. WITH MAIN AXIS ATL-MCN. COUNTERING WAA ALOFT IS DEVELOPING
WEDGE IN RESPONSE TO SFC RDG BUILDG DOWN EAST COAST. WET BULBS AND
TDS DROP AS WEDGE GETS SERIOUS. GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON POPS WEST.

WED NITE INTO THU. WE GET BACK DOORED AS WEDGE BUILDS IN WED NITE,
BUT THU SW MOVES FROM W GULF ACROSS GA, AS WEDGE WEAKENS. THUS POS
GO UP AGAIN. LOOKS AS IF PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. WITH WEDGE SO STRONG
MODLES MAY BE RUSHING ITS DEMISE. THUS WILL RAISE POPS AND GO BELOW
GIUDANCE ON HIS.

EXTENDED. FRI LOOKS OK WITH NEXT SYSTEM EFFECTG N GA SAT NITE INTO
SUN. MON LOOKS PC. WARM UP SAT-MON. BUT MEX LOOKS TOO WARM...WILL
LOWER HIS.

ATL 66/57/69/55 +354  AHN 67/54/60/53 +432
RMG 64/53/67/50 +432  GVL 65/55/58/54 +432
CSG 74/60/73/58 9765  MCN 72/56/64/54 9642

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2001

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL OVER ALABAMA AT THE
MOMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AFTERNOON SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD HELP PRODUCE THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CAPES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE DYNAMICS OF THE
DAY TO WORK WITH.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER RADIOS AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITME AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.