Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2001

STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTH PART OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR GIVING PULSE STORMS OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PART
OF CWA ATTM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE 500MB CLOSED LOW ROTATING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. SECOND UPPER LOW DROPS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROTATES
SOUTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS PRODUCES WEAK
RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA
LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH. MOISTURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE TSTM COMPLEX COVERS CWA BY THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. REALLY
GOOD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WEST PART
OF CWA BY MONDAY EVENING. UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
TUESDAY IN THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA AREA...BUT A COUPLE OF OTHER
IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE CWA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POPS ON DAY 2.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE PRESENT TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS EACH PERIOD...AND INCREASING TO LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY AS
THE ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES INTO THE AREA. IN THE NEAR
TERM...WILL TAKE A LOOK AT RADAR TO GET A FEEL FOR FIRST PERIOD
POPS. FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE DECREASE IN
CLOUDS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND AHEAD OF THE SURGE OF GULF
MOISTURE. DAY 2 HIGHS WILL BE LOWER WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

FCSTID = 22
ATL   69  87  70  84 /  30  20  30  60
AHN   66  89  68  86 /  30  20  30  50
GVL   65  88  68  85 /  30  20  30  50
RMG   64  89  66  85 /  40  20  30  60
CSG   72  91  71  85 /  30  30  30  60
MCN   69  92  70  87 /  20  20  30  60

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

DH

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

DH

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-032230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND WESTCENTRAL GEORGIA...

...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS STRETCHED ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFTER 200 PM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO GRIFFIN TO COLUMBUS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 300 PM
AND 800 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE INCREASING UP TO 2500 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
HELICITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 200 AND 300 IN
NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS AN UPPER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND
HAIL GREATER THAN DIME SIZE.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

&&
TFOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.