Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
205 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA SEEMS WELL AT HAND ALONG WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY EAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS EC SD TO NEAR TWIN CITIES,
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY COMPLETELY MIXED OUT IN NORTHERN IA.
WHEN? IS THE BIGGER QUESTION GIVEN LARGE CIN STILL EVIDENT ON OAX
SOUNDING.  CORN CROP IS IN CANOPY OVER MANY AREAS OF STATE, DOING
IT'S MAGIC TO ADD SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  19Z DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST S OF WARM FRONT.  WEAKER CAP IN MN/SD, SO 21-00Z TIME FRAME LOOKS
GOOD THERE, THEN BACK BUILDING DOWN DEEPENING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN EST-SUX LINE OR THEREABOUTS AFTER 00Z.  310K ISENTROPIC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS RATHER STRONG FOCUSING BEST DEVELOPMENT IN
NW INTO WC AND SW THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 50KT IMPINGES BOUNDARY
WHERE WINDS SLOW TO 20KT.  THERE IS A RISK THAT CONVECTION FORMS A
BREAK SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL IA AS MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES E INTO WI
WHILE WESTERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT ALIGNS MORE ENE-WSW ACROSS W AND
SW IA INTO SE NEBRASKA.  CAPES ARE AMPLE FOR LARGE HAIL, WITH RATHER
HIGH DCAPES FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS WEB PAGE.
LFCS RATHER HIGH, SO WOULD SUSPECT TORNADO THREAT MUCH HIGHER ALONG
MN/WI BOUNDARY THAN IN IA.  SUPERCELLS WILL NEED TO HAVE TIME TO
MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND MODIFY NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGHER
TORNADO THREAT IN OUR CWA.  HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL COULD BE
LOCALIZED WHERE TRAINING CAN OCCUR IN SW IA LATER TONIGHT.  IN THE
ZONE FORECAST, WILL GO WITH SCT N HALF THIS EVENING, WITH 50-60 POP
SW AND 30 POP SE WHERE "SPLIT" MAY INDEED OCCUR.

LONGER TERM...
TUESDAY...SURFACE OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALONG
IA/MO BORDER, OR QUITE POSSIBLY WELL INTO MO.  WILL CARRY A DAY LONG
POP SE, WITH MAINLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA WITHIN GENERAL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MID LEVELS INTO CENTRAL IA.  DON'T FORESEE
PRECIP N SECTIONS.  ALL MODELS PUSH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE S OF
IA ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL TREND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS.
NW FLOW SHORTWAVE IS WORRISOME ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHICH
COULD BRING BOUNDARY BACK N A BIT FURTHER THAN PROGGED. A SECONDARY
COOL FRONT DROPS INTO THE STATE, WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE,
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IF HEATING CAN OCCUR.  THEREFORE,
AM INCLINED TO PUT A LOW POP IN FORECAST IN LINE WITH MAV GUIDANCE.

.DSM...NONE

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
800 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0737 PM    RINGSTED                  IA   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/18/01   EMMET                          REPORTED BY MEDIA. KICD
                                          RADIO

0746 PM    5 S ARMSTRONG             IA   2.75 INCH HAIL
06/18/01   KOSSUTH                        REPORTED BY MEDIA. KICD
                                          RADIO. ALONG EMMET AND
                                          KOSSUTH COUNTY LIINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
851 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0822 PM    6 NW DENISON              IA   .75 INCH HAIL
06/18/01   CRAWFORD                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
942 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....9

0845 PM    1 W THOMPSON              IA   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/18/01   WINNEBAGO                      REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.