Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
217 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

DRYLINE/SFC LOW HAVE MOVED JUST A BIT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
S/W TROF PASSED BY. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S FROM DDC EAST. SOME
COLD AIR SURGING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AS EVIDENCED IN THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MAIN SFC RESPONSE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THINK MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR WEST DRYLINE WILL
GET THEN POPS ACROSS CWA TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THOUGHT THE NGM MISPLACING THE SFC LOW TOO FAR NORTH INTO COLD AIR.
ETA/AVN SFC LOOKED MUCH BETTER AND RELIED ON THEM FOR THE FORECAST.
AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES...THINK SFC WINDS WILL FINALLY BACK AND
SHOULD SEE THE DRYLINE PROGRESS BACK TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THINK SFC LOW/DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT JUST WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
LBL BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP MOSTLY FROM LBL EAST THIS EVENING AND
WILL HAVE TO MENTION POSSIBLY SEVERE FOR MOST OF CWA.  LIKE THE
GOING POPS FOR ALL BUT WEST.  WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY FOR EHA
AREA.  AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND APPROACHING UPPER
SYSTEM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30.  MID LEVEL WINDS NOT
EXCEEDINGLY STRONG BUT COULD MIX DOWN QUITE A BIT OF MOMENTUM.
THUS...STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WITH TSRA.  TEMPS AT 500MB WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AROUND MINUS 32C. WITH THAT KIND OF INSTABILITY...STORMS MY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  WILL GO WITH ABOUT 20 POPS FROM HYS TO P28 FOR
MORNING THUNDER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND UPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.
DOWNSLOPE AND SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S...CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE GUIDANCE.  SHOULD SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING INTO AREA SO WE MAY SEE SOME 30S FOR
LOWS WITH LOWER 40S FOR SOUTHEAST.  ETA SHOWING ANOTHER VORT
ENTERING AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE AS AVAILABLE.  WILL PROBABLY ONLY GO WITH SMALL POPS FOR
THE WESTERN GROUP HOWEVER.

EXTENDED...

GOING WITH EC MODEL THIS CYCLE BASED ON ITS VERIFICATION SKILL
SCORES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR TO THE EC SOLUTION AS WELL. UPSHOT IS THAT I
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A GOOD PUSH OF COLDER AIR FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, SO FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS IDEA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 049/062 039/066 043 700
GCK 045/063 036/068 041 700
EHA 043/064 040/069 043 600
LBL 047/064 040/068 042 800
HYS 054/062 042/067 043 720
P28 056/070 045/068 046 820

.DDC...NONE.

REITER/MCCAMMON