Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM  TUE JUL 3 2001

CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY.
18Z SFC ANAL INDICATED A MOIST SE FLOW PRESENT IN NE COLORADO.
ALTHOUGH A BOUNDARY IS PRESENT IN THE NW CWA, APPEARS THAT THE REAL
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT STILL IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
HIGHER DWPTS POOLING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP
30 POPS GOING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST CLOSE TO OUR SFC
BOUNDARIES, BUT AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ON HOW FAR E/SE ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO MAKE IT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PCPN BUT WILL BACK OFF TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF DDC AREA.

ALL MODELS SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING
OVER THE SW CWA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN KANSAS...SEE NO REASON
NOT TO KEEP A MENTION OF PCPN GOING FOR ALL THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR
SFC BOUNDARY AND IN AN AREA OF INCREASING 85H THETA-E CONV LATE IN
THE DAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT LOBE IS THEN PROGGED TO CROSS FROM
WY INTO NORTHERN KS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOIST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTH CONTINUING AS WELL AS 7-5H LAPSE
RATES WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS GOING NORTH OF DDC GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH 20 POPS ELSEWHERE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AM OPTING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT GO WITH THE WARMER FAN THURSDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

TODAY'S MODEL'S ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH 120 HOURS AT 5H
LEVEL PRESSURE CENTERS.  THEN THE ECMWF BEGINS MOVING THE
CONTROLLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM 4-CORNERS AREA TOWARD THE EAST.  THE
MRF HANGS ON TO A BROADER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE CANADIAN MODEL AFTER DAY 4 IS MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF THAN
THE MRF OR UKMET.  WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH DRY AND
HOT FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY 4-PERIOD.  WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP
AS EVEN THE ECMWF BRINGS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE BACK OVERHEAD
BY MONDAY.  WE WILL NEED TO SEE THE UPPER RIDGE GET WELL EAST OF US
AND ANCHORED, SO MONSOONAL FLOW...OR AT LEAST SOME GULF
MOISTURE...CAN MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA.  WILL NOT CHANGE

IN NEARER TERM, THE FRONT THAT WILL BE LINGERING AROUND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT IS ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO JUSTIFY 20 POPS.  DAY TIME
HEATING WILL BE THERE, BUT UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/0096 067/090 065 213
GCK 067/096 067/089 064 323
EHA 065/094 065/091 062 202
LBL 067/094 065/091 062 202
HYS 065/091 064/088 060 324
P28 071/096 068/091 063 202

.DDC...NONE.

RB/BURKE