Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CHC OF PCPN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
PCPN AND TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED.

12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A 90KT 250 JET OVER THE NW CONUS WITH ANOTHER
STREAK EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. W/V LOOP AND 5H
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATED SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AT THE
SFC AT 15Z ONE SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME WESTERN KS INTO SC
NEBRASKA AND THE REAL COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NW IOWA INTO SE WY.
SFC DWPTS DID SHOW SOME LOWER 60 DWPTS ALONG/NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING WITH SOME DECENT HT RISES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY.

ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG
OUR SFC BOUNDARY IN THE CWA AS A S/W TROF CROSSES THE CWA. WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPPER 90S AND 7-5H DELTA T GREATER THAN 20
SOME SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THIS AREA.
DO NOT THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LONG LIVED GIVEN THE 13-16C 7H
TEMPS. SO MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS DISSIPATE IN
OUR CWA TOWARDS SUNSET. WILL ADJUST ZONE ACCORDINGLY DEPENDING ON
THIS BOUNDARIES LOCATION AT ISSUANCE TIME. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH ALONG OUR COLD FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA EARLY TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MOVE ALONG OUR MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
SW NE INTO CNTL KANSAS. THIS SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS HERE.

SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH MODELS ON MOVING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
ALL BUT THE SE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD ALSO STAY UP PRIOR
TO FROPA WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY IN THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A WIND ADV GOING FOR MOST/IF NOT ALL
THE CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS UP SOME, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH.

FOR TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA AND STALLS OUT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF
OUR FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON 7-5H
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM AND 85H MOIST CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP CHC POPS
OF AFTERNOON TS IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE WILL
ONLY MENTION SLT CHC POPS AND GO WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS AND WINDS
SUBSIDING AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY NIGHT, SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVT PRESENT IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SW KANSAS. THEREFORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE PROGGED
TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG OUR NORTHWEST FLOW.
WIDESPREAD PCPN THIS TIME APPEARS MORE LIKELY SO WILL OPT FOR
LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SFC MOISTURE ALSO ON THE INCREASE AS WELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A WET FORECAST WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED
DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W PASSAGE ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DEVELOP RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS IS
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY TSRA FOR ALL ZONES THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN CWA STAND
BEST CHC SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP.  MORE OR LESS AGREE WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN FORECAST AND FMR LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/077 060/075 054 226
GCK 061/075 060/076 052 226
EHA 067/077 062/076 053 236
LBL 067/078 061/075 055 236
HYS 060/072 058/072 048 434
P28 069/079 065/078 056 246

.DDC...WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-076>081
-086>090

RB/REITER