Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO 2ND PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING
SOUTH AND WEST.  SECONDARY CONSIDERATION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISH.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE DATA AT 20Z SHOWED AN OLD...PESKY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR JLN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR PNC TO GAG
THEN BACK NORTHWEST TO NEAR THE EHA AREA.  A LOOP OF RECENT VISIBLY
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SOUTH EDGE OF SOLID CLOUDS ARCHED
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR ITR IN COLORADO TO GCK AND DDC...THEN ARCHED
EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTH OF ICT NEAR EWK.  THINK THERE WILL BE STORMS
CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG SOLID CLOUD/BREAKS INTERFACE.  IN THE
WEST...EXPECT MORE STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM COLORADO WITH THE LEE
TROUGH BEING THE FOCUS AREA.  ALONG WITH 50 POPS SOUTH AND WEST...
WILL MENTION POSSIBLY SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WORDING.  THE
LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY STORM MOTIONS GREATER
THAN 20-25KTS.  SURFACE MOISTURE IS RUNNING VERY HIGH FROM RECENT
SATURATION FROM HEAVY RAINS.  MANY CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ARE
RUNNING AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY 2 YEARS.  NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BRIEF NEXT SHIFT OF THE THREAT.  DO NOT
THINK NORTH-NORTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE MUCH CHANCE FOR THUNDER UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING...AFTER FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD
FROM LATE DAY CONVECTION.

12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED THE ETA/AVN COMPROMISE STILL BETTER
THAN NGM SOLUTION.  THE RUC AND THE AVN WERE THE ONLY MODELS EVEN
CLOSE TO PICKING UP THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF CWA
AT 19Z.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN FOR TIMING AND TEMPS, AND USE ETA
AS A SECOND REFERENCE.  DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WIND THROUGH 48 HOURS, AS GRADIENT IS SLACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING IN.  WILL GO BASICALLY WITH WEAK
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH IS A GRADUAL UPSLOPE FLOW
FOR DDC CWA.

LOW TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP A BIT ON SATURDAY...BUT
WILL GO WITH ONLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES F HIGHER THAN FRIDAY/S HIGHS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DATELINE HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH GLOBAL ANGULAR MOMENTUM
CONTINUING TO DECREASE. CONVECTION ALSO NOTED TO BE PERSISTING
FURTHER WEST THEN THE SEASONAL NORM AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND
AND PAST 3 DAY/S N. HEMISPHERIC W/V LOOP...SHOULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOP WEST OF ALASKA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A DEEPER TROF TO
DEVELOP THAN WHAT THE MRF WAS SHOWING OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND BOTH APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION AND THESE MODELS REMAINING THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS SO WILL FOLLOW THESE SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY AND DISCARDED
THE MRF TODAY.  THE RESULT OF THIS IS THAT CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH WARMING TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL
HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER LEVEL TROF PROGGED BY THE ECMWF TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY TUESDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS. STILL SOME HINTS OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AT
7H SO CAP MAY HOLD ONE MORE DAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GO WITH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AND BACK TEMPS OFF TO TEMPS TO THE 80S
FOR HIGHS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 064/083 062/088 065 321
GCK 063/085 061/090 064 521
EHA 063/086 062/090 065 521
LBL 065/085 062/090 065 521
HYS 062/080 063/088 066 332
P28 068/085 065/089 068 321

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/BURGERT

KSZ061>063-074>081-084>090-072100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FORMING AND TOUCHING THE GROUND
BRIEFLY AS WEAK TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THESE VERY WEAK
TORNADOES CAN FORM RAPIDLY BUT WILL LAST ONLY A FEW MINUTES AND
RARELY DO ANY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THIS TYPE OF WEAK TORNADO CALLED A
LANDSPOUT FORMS UNDERNEATH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM AND
LASTS FROM A FEW SECONDS TO A FEW MINUTES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY
DAMAGE USUALLY RESULTS FROM THESE LANDSPOUT TYPE TORNADOES, FOR YOUR
SAFETY IF ONE IS SPOTTED TAKE SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU CAN CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC/

RB/KRUSE/LR