Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SPELLING 3RD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AGAIN CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND TEMPS.

12Z UPPER AIR MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED 2 CYCLONIC JETS AT 250MB WITH ONE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OTHER OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE COLD WITH -28C AT 500 MB.
ALTHOUGH DELTA TS ARE IMPRESSIVE, MID LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ARE WARMING WITH A 14C 700MB TEMP AT KRIW. COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED THE RED RIVER VALLEY VICINITY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY RETURNING WITH MID 50F DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS IN CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 3MB
SINCE 14Z. NGM AGAIN IS SHOWING ITS TOO FAR NORTH BIAS WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ETA/AVN SOLUTIONS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO STILL SEEMS ON SCHEDULE TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING. ALSO STILL BELIEVE THE TRACK OF THE SUBSEQUENT
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WOULD BE ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES BASED ON WEAK
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 50KT RANGE
AND PERHAPS SOME RESULTANT SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES WITH THIS IN MIND.

WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY MORNING AND WARM AIR ALOFT KEEP IT IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INVERSION WIND MAX MAY THUS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
STORMS GOING. 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
BUT WILL BACK THESE OFF WITH THE STUBBORN STRATUS. THUS THINK THE
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY WHEN ENOUGH HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TO BREAK THE CAP AND
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH COLORADO. HIGHER
POPS THEN SEEM JUSTIFIED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SUNDAY. WITH WARM
FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND A CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPH WILL MENTION
SEVERE. BEST CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
HIGHEST MOISTURE AND WEAKEST CAP WILL BE.

MONDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET, RELATIVELY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR SINKING IN AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED DOWN INTO TEXAS
WITH RETURN MOISTURE COMING UP INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOME
CONVECTION IN MOUNTAINS WILL TRY TO MAKE INTO WEST KANSAS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO COLORADO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY HELP CAP AREA
ESPECIALLY WEST HOWEVER MAY HAVE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ROLL
OFF RIDGE AND INTO AREA SO WILL PUT IN A CHANCE FOR MAINLY OVERNIGHT
THUNDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY IT LOOKS LIKE HOT AIR IS
ARRIVING WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVED OVER WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH 850 TEMPS
FORECAST TO YIELD TEMPS INTO 90S AND MAYBE BREECHING CENTURY MARK.
WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 058/083 060/078 051 326
GCK 058/085 055/079 050 225
EHA 056/092 054/081 050 223
LBL 058/088 055/080 051 225
HYS 055/078 058/075 047 526
P28 060/082 064/078 052 326

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2001

...THE NEED FOR SPOTTERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT...

IN SPITE OF VERY UNSTABLE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, A SURGE OF
VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR IS INHIBITING STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR TONIGHT.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POTENT SITUATION FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES...

MORTON...HAMILTON...STEVENS...STANTON...KEARNY...GRANT...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU CAN CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC/

JOHNSON