Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL FRONT.

SEVERAL LEAD WAVES EVIDENT AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
NEW MEXICO. ONE IS CAUSING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS WITH ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE NORTHERN STORMS MAY
CLIP NORTH PART OF AREA THIS MORNING WHILE STORM CLUSTERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD MAKE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THEN AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS EAST SEVERAL VORTS AND MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS TO FORM IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST JET DYNAMICS AND MID
LEVEL WINDS TO STAY SOUTH OF AREA, HOWEVER LF QUAD OF UPPER JET TO
SPREAD SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AREA AND HELP OUT WITH
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE DOES NOT LOOK
TO STRONG TODAY WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL. WILL GO
LIKELY POPS TODAY ALL AREAS. SOME STRATUS EVIDENT ON FOG CHANNEL SAT
PICS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNDER GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AS UPPER WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE BEST PVA IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WILL GO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS AND LESSER IN WEST. UPPER WAVE PUSHES A
COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA AND WINDS TO SWITCH TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

ON WEDNESDAY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH BREEZY WINDS
FORECAST OF 15 TO 25 MPH. ANOTHER VORT ROTATES IN BACK OF UPPER WAVE
AND COULD GIVE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 30 TO 40 POPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UPPER S/W TROF PROGGED TO EXIT CWA WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT STILL REMAINS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST EARLY (00Z THU) BUT QUICKLY EXITS AREA.
WILL THEREFORE REMOVE SLT CHC POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GO WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 076/057 069/052 076 773
GCK 076/057 069/051 076 773
EHA 075/053 069/050 078 743
LBL 076/055 069/051 078 743
HYS 076/055 068/049 075 894
P28 079/064 074/055 077 784

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/RB

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-292100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FROM NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.  AS IT DOES, LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND HELP PULL
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXISTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM
SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY BUT TZHE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU CAN CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC/

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY, KS
103 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0420 AM    10 SW HUGOTON             KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/29/01   STEVENS

0700 AM    18 SE TREGO CENTER        KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/29/01   TREGO

0725 AM    11 SW HAYS                KSu   .75 INCH HAIL
05/29/01   ELLIS

BURKE