Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES TONIGHT IS THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
MOST OF CWA. ON FRIDAY HOW MUCH CLOUD HANGS AROUND AND EFFECT ON
TEMPS.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AND
NEAR HAYS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING ALONG FRONT NEAR
SYRACUSE AND LAKIN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT AS PUSH FROM SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES ACROSS. WIND SHEAR NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS SO
WOULD EXPECT MULTICELL SEVERE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. WILL CANVAS ENTIRE AREA WITH 60 TO 70 POP AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN OFFING WITH NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT. IF THICK OVERCAST STICKS AROUND
TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF 60S. WILL HEDGE WITH SOME BREAKS AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE AVN MODELS SHOWS A VORT STILL COMING
ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
OR A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST AREA IS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
WILL GO WITH 20 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND 30 IN SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND
WARM AIR STARTS TRYING TO MOVE BACK ACROSS AREA. COOLER FLOW OFF OF
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER. WILL GO
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WEST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EC/UKMET LOOK TO BE THE MODELS OF CHOICE TODAY. CANADIAN NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND ON ITS SOLUTION. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE MRF LOOK TO BE TOO
COOL FOR TEMPS MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO VERIFICATION
SKILL SCORES FOR THE EC CONTINUE TO WALLOP THE OTHER MODELS. UPSHOT
IS THAT I'LL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY WARM FOR THE EARLY AND MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK GOING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SFC
TROF/DRYLINE MEANDERING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FURTHER, ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM IN THE MID LEVELS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE, AM GOING TO KEEP JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 056/072 054/079 053 620
GCK 055/072 053/079 052 620
EHA 055/074 055/q083 054 620
LBL 056/074 055/081 054 620
HYS 054/071 052/078 054 710
P28 060/075 057/079 056 630

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE/MCCAMMON