Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 2001

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS State College, PA

January 30, 2001Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Jan 30, 2001, 4:26 PM EST for Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jan 30, 2001, 4:26 PM EST (21:26 UTC)
Expired: Jan 30, 2001, 7:30 PM EST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS State College, PA
Area: Whole counties

County Lancaster County, PA

The nearest sounding before it

Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 398 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 372 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 478 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS51 KCTP 302136
FFWCTP
PAC071-310030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
426 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LANCASTER COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA

* UNTIL 730 PM EST.

* AT 425 PM EST...STREAM GAGES ON PEQUEA CREEK AT PARADISE SHOW
  RAPID RISES OF WATER LEVELS. A STAGE OF 5.9 FEET IS REPORTED AS OF
  430 PM...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.

TODAYS RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH ICE BREAKING UP ON PEQUEA 
CREEK...HAVE RESULTED IN RAPID RISES NEAR PARADISE. AN ICE JAM HAS 
LIKELY FORMED NEAR PARADISE...AND THE WATER LEVEL WILL EXCEED THE 
6.0 FOOT FLOOD SHORTLY.  

AN ICE JAM RESTRICTS WATER FLOW. THE WATER BEHIND THE ICE JAM WILL 
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE AND MAY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE. BE PREPARED 
TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO AVOID THE FLOOD WATERS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS ?WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAT...LON 4028 7614 4012 7596 3990 7603 3978 7626
          4016 7667

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jan 30, 2:00 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 30, 2:00 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
2 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2001

OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA. OUR RADAR INDICATES
ECHOS ARE WEAKENING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. DRY SLOT NOSING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUN EVEN IN HAPPY VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.
MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND OPENING UP AS IT
APPROACHES US.

COLD ADVECTION AT MIDLEVELS IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT AND
TAKE HOLD ON WEDNESDAY. HENCE WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB SUPPORTS
BLUSTERY WORDING. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
BETWEEN 700 MB AND THE SURFACE...WILL BE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS IN THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL DROP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

VORTICITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK ANTICIPATED AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF MONTANA WILL RIDE
THE STRONG JET STREAM SOUTHEAST AND SET UP IN THE MIDWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE ETA MODEL IS WEAKER...SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WITH WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE AVN MODEL IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH SEVERAL STRONG IMPULSES WITHIN THE TROUGH. FAVOR THE
ETA VERSION AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS NOT TOO PROGRESSIVE.
THIS WAVE SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER A QUASI STATIONARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR NORTH. MAIN WEATHER FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE CAUSED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSING OF A WARM FRONT. THE FULL IMPACT
OF THE SYSTEM IS FELT BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN STORM WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.CTP...NONE.

ROGOWSKI/MARTIN

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2001 Every flash flood warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.