Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
330 AM MDT MON AUG 6 2001

CHALK UP A WIN FOR THE AVN AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNED AS IT
PREDICTED THIS MORNING.  RESULTING BATCH OF STORMS IN THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAX CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TOWARD DENVER AND SEEMS IN NO
HURRY TO DIE OUT.  NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE CITY...BUT I
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO THROW IN SOME EARLY MORNING POPS IN SOME ZONES.
WEAK ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH NO BIG CHANGE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT FROM THIS MORNING.  ETA TRIES TO MOVE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NW AND OUT OF CO...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE MORE E THAN SE.  TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF STORMS IS A
CHALLENGE.  FIRST GUESS WOULD BE MAINLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WE MAY STILL
HAVE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BROAD AREA...OR MORE LIKELY SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES...FROM ROUGHLY KDEN-KCOS TOWARD THE E AND NE.  GIVEN THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH LOW LEVEL
FORCING TO PRODUCE STORMS EARLIER.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS OF
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS NERN CO FROM E TO W TONIGHT.  THIS MAY
BE CAUSE OF THE CONVECTION OR EFFECT...BUT IF THERE IS SOME
ORGANIZATION IT WOULD PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  WE MAY ALSO HAVE MORE ACTIVITY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES...SO THAT MAY BEAR WATCHING.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON A DECREASE IN MOISTURE...AND SLIGHT LOW
LEVEL COOLING...FOR TUE AND WED FROM LOW LEVEL SE WINDS.  CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE HERE.  MOISTURE STARTS TO DRIFT UP FROM
THE SOUTH BY THU AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AS WELL...SO THE
WETTER AND NOT AS WARM TREND LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.      GIMMESTAD

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-062000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT MON AUG 6 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK BUT DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING.  A BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  THIS BOUNDARY COULD SLOWLY SLIDE WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MORGAN...ADAMS...ARAPAHOE AND ELBERT COUNTIES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE DEVELOP.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER TODAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.

SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS SO WEAK...THE STORMS WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR.  FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

SINCE THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  RAINFALL REPORTS HOWEVER WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

COOPER

COZ030>051-062100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
100 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK BUT DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.

AT 1 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

IN THE PLAINS...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM AROUND NUNN TO FORT MORGAN
TO COPE...THEN SOUTHWEST INTO KARVAL.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL.  THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
...WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST INTO WELD...MORGAN...LINCOLN...AS WELL AS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ADAMS...ARAPAHOE AND ELBERT COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS SO WEAK...THE STORMS WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR.  IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH
IN DIAMETER.  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  RAINFALL REPORTS HOWEVER WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

COOPER