Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER AREA. THEN...A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ALONG A KINL-KFSD-KONL LINE
WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF BOUNDARY.  WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
KMKE-KRGK-KAXN LINE BUT SEEMS TO BE MIXING NORTHWARD OVER WI NOW AS
KEAU HAS BECOME MORE SOUTH AND PMSL DROPPED 6MB/HR AS MESOHIGH
ERODED. SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWING CLEAR AND CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITH A
STINGY MID-LEVEL ACCAS DECK/SHOWERS FROM KAUW-KLSE-KFRM.  THIS SEEMS
TO BE SOUTHERN TAIL OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWRD INTO
UP OF MI. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...ACCAS SHOULD
WEAKEN/SHIFT EAST AS CONVERGENCE IS DECREASED...THUS AFTERNOON
PACKAGE WILL LIKELY NOT ADDRESS THIS.  WILL WATCH FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES. SAME FOR SWRN WI WHICH IS AREA WHERE LLJ IS SIMPLY RUNNING
OVER A LOW LEVEL COLD POOL.

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS TIMING OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND
WHAT TYPE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER FORECAST AREA.
MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH. 12Z ETA SUGGESTS 00Z
SBCAPE MAXIMUM OF 3500J/KG ACROSS SWRN MN DECREASING TO KLSE WHERE IT
IS 2000. 18Z RUC2 SBCAPE FURTHER EAST AND VALUES OF 4500 J/KG.
LATEST LAPS SUGGESTS ABOUT 2500 J/KG IS NOW OVER CWA. ALL MODELS
DECREASE THIS AS EVENING PROGRESSES.  CAP IS VERY INTENSE NOW
/CINH 200/ BUT DECREASING WITH HEATING. BELIEVE THE SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPPED UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE CONVERGENCE AND
COOLING ALOFT MOVE INTO AREA. WIND SHEAR IS VERY STRONG AND HODOGRAPH
LENGTH WOULD BE LONGEST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM...RIGHT ON
FRONT. BELIEVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE MCS WHEN
REACHING OUR AREA AND LIKELY PERPENDICULAR TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH
COULD ENHANCE BOW ECHOES AND WIND EVENT. WIND ALSO PREFERRED AS
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN >5C/KM WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MIXING CONTINUING UNTIL FRONT ARRIVES. 0-3KM SHEAR IS >30
KTS WHICH IS NICE FOR WIND TOO. FRONTAL TIMING ROUGHLY 02Z ON WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THEN 06Z KLSE 10Z KDBQ. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
IS WEST OF MISS RIVER WITH MOST INSTABILITY AND EARLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING ALL AREAS BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DECREASE EASTWARD AND SEVERE THREAT TOO AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS BY MORNING.

STILL SOME CONCERN WITH UPPER JET TO THE NORTH AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT FOCUSED THERE AS WELL. BELIEVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
FRONT AND BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF AREA. WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW...BUT
THIS MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO ENTIRE EVENT. STORM EVENT
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD FAST ENOUGH /45-50 KT STORM MOTION/ SO FLASH
FLOOD THREAT MINIMAL EVEN THOUGH A FEW AREAS ARE RIPE FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS
TO REGION AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW.  MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGH REFLECTED AT SURFACE.  THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED.o..RIDGE BUILDING AS LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES EASTWARD.
LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

COORDINATED WITH MKX.

.LSE...NONE.

BAUMGARDT

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-190600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
425 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

HAZARD - MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TIMING - THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOCATION - ALL OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION - LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS "CAPPED"
WHICH MEANS VERY LITTLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 7PM. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THOUGH AND AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COOL THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EXPLOSIVELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THE FIRST STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. THEY WILL EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS...
A SQUALL LINE MOST LIKELY...WHICH WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

SPOTTER INFORMATION - SPOTTER ACTIVATION WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
AFTER 7PM IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AFTER 9 PM ELSEWHERE. WE URGE
YOU TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ONCE A WATCH IS
ISSUED.

SHEA