Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT...

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...MANY
OF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION.  MAIN COMPLEX
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IS MOVING TO
THE EAST.  THREAT EVOLVING FROM HAIL TO HEAVY RAIN.  IT IS
EXITING TO THE EAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING AT THIS
TIME...UNLESS BACK BUILDING OCCURS.  UPON LATEST ANALYSIS...STORMS
SEEM TO BE EXITING...THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LOCAL COMPLEX SHOULD DECAY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  COMPLEX OVER
THE DAKOTAS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
ZONES WHILE IT WEAKENS.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
GONE...GIVING WAY TO CAPPING INVERSION IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
AS IT MOVES NORTH.  THIS WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL GO WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR KRGK-KISW.  NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ALL DAY DUE TO
PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD EXHIBIT A GRADUAL CURVING STRONG SPEED SHEARING ATMOSPHERE.
ALSO...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 5000
J/KG.  WITH THE CAP IN PLACE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.  ONCE STORM INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.  EXPECT A HANDFUL
OF SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE THE CAP
WEAKENS...MAINLY AFTER DARK.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD.

COORDINATED WITH MPX/DMX/DVN/MKX/GRB.

.LSE...NONE'.

KRC

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ086>088-094>096-WIZ041>044-053>055-061-
181000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
411 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

IN MINNESOTA
     FILLMORE...MOWER...DODGE...WINONA...HOUSTON AND OLMSTED

IN WISCONSIN
     VERNON...ADAMS...GRANT...LA CROSSE...RICHLAND...CRAWFORD...
     MONROE AND JUNEAU

IN IOWA
     CHICKASAW...FLOYD...WINNESHIEK...CLAYTON...FAYETTE...HOWARD...
     ALLAMAKEE AND MITCHELL

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST UNION...WAUKON...VIROQUA...
ROCHESTER...RICHLAND CENTER...PRESTON...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...OSAGE...
NEW HAMPTON...MAUSTON...MANTORVILLE...LANSING...LANCASTER...LA
CROSSE...LA CRESCENT...GUTTENBERG...ELKADER...DODGE CENTER...
DECORAH...CRESCO...CHARLES CITY...CALEDONIA AND AUSTIN

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THIS WATCH HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA...THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 440
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

BOYNE