Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

STRONG SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM WRN UPR MI THRU NW WI INTO
FAR SW MN AND CENTRAL IA. FRONT IS FAIRLY QUIET FOR NOW WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTION...WITH A WEAK AREA OF SHRA/TSRA IN FAR SE LWR MI AND
NE IN FEEDING OFF A MAX OF THETA E IN THE VICINITY. DO EXPECT FRONT AND
PLACES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE THETA E-RIDGE WILL BECOME QUITE
ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODIFIED 12Z APX
SOUNDING FOR 00Z YIELDS CAPES AROUND 4500 J/KG...LIS OF -11 AND
TTS OF 52. WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THRU THE COLUMN...WITH SOME
SPEED SHEAR. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
DYNAMIC BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY EMBEDDED ALONG
A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE ALONG AND JUST HEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITH POOLING OF 850 MB THETA E IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
RUC40 STILL POINTS TOWARD THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING VIA THE RRQ OF
THE UPPER JET MAX WILL BE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUS...EXPECT STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THIS REGION.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO WORD PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
WILL INCREASE POPS TO NUMEROUS TONIGHT FOR THE SE WHERE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THRU BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS ERN UPR MI BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

.APX...NONE.

EME

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-100400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1148 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

* THREAT AREA...ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
  MICHIGAN...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OF
  MACKINAC.

* DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

* SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND
  GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL
  DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
  MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
  LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* TIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...2 PM TO 6 PM ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
  MICHIGAN...4 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

EME

MIZ008-015>029-031>034-100100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
125 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     OSCODA...OTSEGO...LEELANAU...EMMET...ROSCOMMON...WEXFORD...GRAND
     TRAVERSE...CRAWFORD...MONTMORENCY...PRESQUE ISLE...MISSAUKEE...
     KALKASKA...ANTRIM...MANISTEE...ALPENA...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX
     AND BENZIE

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST
60 MPH ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH
AREA...YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MIZ030-035-036-041-042-100300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     GLADWIN...OGEMAW...IOSCO...ALCONA AND ARENAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST
60 MPH ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH
AREA...YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.