Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL WELL DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR KSWO TO KFSM AT 2030Z PER
OKLAHOMA MESONET WINDS. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BOUNDARY BY 22Z...WITH
ACTIVITY THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS CURRENT ACTIVITY NORTH OF TULSA TRACKS
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST CORNER ARKANSAS.

EXPECT ALL STORMS TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AND MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
REGION TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE STORMS.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE
ONLY DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITHOUT A THREAT OF RAIN. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT IN THE ENDLESS SUPPLY OF SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

IN EXTENDED...WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN IN EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED
WITH MRF CONTINUING TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN VICINITY WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN 1/2 FORECAST AREA.

PRELIMINARY FIRST PERIOD POPS BELOW ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME...

FCSTID = 9
TUL   48  68  46  68 /  30   0   0  30
FSM   48  72  42  71 /  40   0   0  20
MLC   50  71  45  74 /  30   0   0  20
BVO   46  68  41  67 /  30   0   0  30
FYV   44  65  38  68 /  40   0   0  20
BYV   44  64  38  67 /  40   0   0  20
MIO   48  68  46  68 /  30   0   0  30
MKO   49  69  44  70 /  30   0   0  30
F10   48  68  45  68 /  30   0   0  30
HHW   52  72  46  73 /  30   0   0  20

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053>054...OKZ059>062...OKZ064>076.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1022 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 AM    FAIRFAX                   OK    .88 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   OSAGE                           HAM RADIO REPORT OF
                                           NICKEL SIZED HAIL

DRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    GROVE                     OK    WIND DAMAGE
03/26/00   DELAWARE                        TREES AND POWER LINES
                                           DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD.
                                           REPORT FROM GROVE EOC.

DRM

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
AT MIDDAY A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST CATCHING UP TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND OVERTAKING
IT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAIN COOLED ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY REBOUND.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  THESE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CAPES
AROUND 3000 J/KG. THESE CAPES WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL.  WIND FIELDS ALOFT THUS FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN WEAK BUT MAY
STRENGTHEN SOME TOWARD EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  EVEN SO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS LOOKS
SLIM.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH OTHER
DETAILED FORECASTS...CAN BE OBTAINED VIA THE INTERNET AT
WWW.NWSTULSA.NOAA.GOV.



PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

024p5 PM    PRYOR                     OK    .75 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    PRYOR                     OK    .75 INCH HAIL
03/26/00   MAYES