Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000

SQUALL LINE BREAKING UP ON THE SOUTHERN END ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS WITH MORE SOLID LINE FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTH.
STORM INTENSITIES HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HOUR.
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY SO
SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

DRY SLOT WILL HAVE PUNCHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY MORNING
SO THURSDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WINDY DAY AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. EXPECT WIND ADVISORIES TO BE REQUIRED MOST EVERYWHERE
AND WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME BLOWING DUST.

LATEST ECMWF/UKMET AND LOGICAL EXTENSION OF THE 48 HOUR ETA SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH. 48 HOUR ETA AND 72 HOUR AVN
BOTH SHOW VERY DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AND PERSISTENT EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP ADVECTING IN DRY AIR. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH TOO WARM GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA BUT WILL DEFER CHANGES TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO LET THEM
VIEW THE ENTIRE NEW MODEL SUITE.

WILL MAKE SOME FIRST PERIOD FORECAST CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
BUT LET THE REST OF THE FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL
AROUND 10 PM TO ISSUE THE UPDATE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH REGARD TO
THE CURRENT WATCH AND ANY POSSIBLE NEW WATCHES.

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73 IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO CHECOTAH TO HUGO...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.  A TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE LINE SHOULD REACH OSAGE...PAWNEE
...CREEK...AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.  THE STORMS
WILL REACH A LINE FROM TULSA TO MCALESTER BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM.  THE
LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY WEST
OF A NOWATA TO HUGO LINE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS CAUSING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIFT
THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WEST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA... THE AIRMASS IS MORE
STABLE TOWARD NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  WITH MORE STABILITY AND LESS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...STORMS THAT REACH FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.EMERGENCY AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ACTIVATE BEFORE THE LINE OF STORMS
ARRIVES IN THEIR AREA.  OTHER SPOTTERS EAST OF THE WATCH SHOULD
MONITOR LATER WEATHER UPDATES FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION IF WEATHER
CONDITIONS CHANGE.

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