Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

PROBLEM FOR THE MORNING IS THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH.  GUT FEELING IS THAT WORST STORMS WILL STAY TO OUR
WEST BUT THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD GET WET.  CLOUD DEBRIS AND
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN TO EFFECT WHOLE FORECAST AREA IF TAKE THE ETA
TO HEART.  WILL CARRY MORNING MENTION ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS.

MODELS ARE NOT AS GUNG HO TONIGHT ABOUT ANOTHER MCS BUT FLOW STILL
REMAINS NORTHWEST AND GOING FORECAST HAS MENTIONED.  SEE NO REASON
TO TAMPER WITH THAT SO HAVE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING POPS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTH SUNDAY AND FEEL MCS THAT GENERATE OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL STAY TO THE WEST.  SHOULD BE DRY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEAK BUT WILL TRY TO GET A GLIMPSE OF THE NEW MRF
BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TO VERIFY THAT.

TEMPWISE...8H TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO REALLY HOT
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.  TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY AND
SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS TOMORROW CONSIDERING CARRYING MORE OF
A THREAT OF MORNING RAIN THE MOS DOES.  LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK A BIT COOL SO HAVE ADJUSTED THEM UP SLIGHTLY.

WOULD THINK WOULD BE HEADED FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE MAY SHIFT BACK THIS WAY A BIT.

FCSTID = 17
TUL   85  70  85  70 /  60  30  30  10
FSM   87  70  87  70 /  30  20  30  10
MLC   87  70  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
BVO   85  67  86  68 /  50  30  30  10
FYV   82  65  83  65 /  30  20  30  10
BYV   82  65  83  65 /  30  20  30  10
MIO   85  67  86  68 /  50  30  30  10
MKO   85  70  85  70 /  60  30  30  10
F10   85  70  85  70 /  60  30  30  10
HHW   90  72  90  72 /  30  20  30  10

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM IN AREAS
SOUTH OF AN OKEMAH TO PAGE LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH OF AN OKEMAH TO PAGE LINE...THIS MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF ALL AREAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE LEVELS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAM
WINDS. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS KANSAS AND PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.EMERGENCY AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER TRENDS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.