Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM DEALS WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING
SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS
AND TRACK ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. GENESIS REGION FOR THIS MCS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY
AND HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS NEEDED FOR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.

CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
MCS DIES AND UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF MORNING
CONVECTION AND EFFECTS OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. WILL SIDE WITH
COOLER NGM MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED MOST
AREAS.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD AND FURTHERN NORTHEAST THAN THIS MORNING. WILL GO WITH
ONLY 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF ARKANSAS FOR LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. REST OF FORECAST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MOST OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE DRYLINE OFF TO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS IN CASE ANY STORMS MAKE IT AS FAR
EAST AT TUL OR MLC LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDTIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

IN EXTENDED...EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONT REMAINS IN VICINITY AND SOUTHERN JET
REMAINS ACTIVE.

FCSTID = 9
TUL   81  68  85  67 /  40  10  20  30
FSM   81  63  87  64 /  40  10  10  20
MLC   84  67  85  68 /  40  10  20  30
BVO   81  67  85  65 /  40  10  20  30
FYV   80  62  82  63 /  40  20  10  20
BYV   80  62  82  63 /  40  20  10  20
MIO   81  65  83  64 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   84  67  85  68 /  40  10  20  30
F10   81  68  85  67 /  40  10  20  30
HHW   85  66  85  67 /  20  10  10  20

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.