Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

...FORECAST CHALLENGES NEXT FEW DAYS CENTER ON HOW WARM TO GO AND
   ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES...

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO ACROSS
CNTRL KS...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT IN KS. ONLY AREA
IS ACROSS SWRN KS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER SERN
CO AND THEN MOVED INTO INSTABILITY AXIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA OVER
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FEEL THIS AREA OF PCPN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING CNTRL KS AND WILL GIVE CWA A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORN.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION VCNTY ELP.
MODELS ALL SHOW A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IN SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT THAT
IS FCST TO EXTENDED FROM SWRN/WRN TX NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW OK AND
SCENT KS. LIGHT QPF IS GENERATED ON MOST MODELS INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTERACTS
WITH H85 JET OVER CNTRL/ERN KS. FOR NOW WILL GO PC AND LEAVE OUT
SMALL POPS FOR NOW.

APPEARS THAT AS SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO
UPR MISS VLY...FA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE HOT AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S AND LOWER 100S ON SAT. ETA AND AVN
SOLUTIONS ALL BRING FAIRLY HIGH 1000/500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
585-588DM OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER OF SWLY FLOW
FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. WITH LACK OF CLOUDS...FEEL MOST AREAS WILL
SEE 100F WITH THICKNESS AND H85 THERMAL AXIS TO EXTEND MORE ACROSS
NW KS INTO ECENT NEBRASKA. THIS IS WHERE HEAT SHOULD REALLY BUILD
WITH MAX TEMPS PROBABLY AROUND 105F. GUID MAX TEMPS FOR TOPEKA
LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED PAST
FEW DAYS AROUND THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA APPEARS TO BE LATER TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS H5 TROF NOW OVER SWRN
CANADA HEADS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES REGION AND FORCES SFC BOUNDARY
INTO SRN NEB/FAR NRN MO BY 12Z WED. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACT TO
DEVELOP SOME TSTMS TO THE NORTH OF CWA TUESDAY EVE WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY PROPAGATING INTO NERN KS DURING THE NIGHT. MAY INCLUDE A
20% POP NERN CWA THIS AFTN AS SFC BOUNDARY MAY BE A TAD SLOWER THAN
MODELS SHOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT FO THE CWA.

.TOP...NONE

BB

9

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071830-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHCENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF KANSAS...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL SCATTER
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE THE AIR WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE...BUT DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST CLOUDS THIN...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE
SOME ACTIVITY AS WELL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PF