Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  TOPEKA KS
242 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2000

MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

MORE CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SEEN ON VISUAL IMAGERY.
MAY BE GETTING SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OK SHORT WAVE HELPING SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT.  STILL MAY INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR EARLY EVENING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.  OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT MODELS SLIP SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.  THIS HELPS SAG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA.  CONCERN AFTER EARLY
EVENING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS SOMETHING DRIFTING SOUTH INTO FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  FAVORING
THE ETA SOLUTION HERE AND CORFIDI VECTORS BY 24 HOURS WOULD DRIFT THESE
TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN A LITTLE SOUTHWEST.  ETA QPF STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CWA. WILL COORDINATE WITH OAX/EAX BEFORE DECIDING ON ADDING
SOME LOW POPS AGAIN.  EXPECT WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS THIN SOME AFTER
SUNSET BUT ALL THE MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL RH RETURNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND WILL WORD CLOUD TRENDS IN THAT WAY.  LOWS LAST NIGHT
WERE AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

BEYOND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING PUSHING EAST OF CWA BY
36 TO 48 HOURS AND HINTS OF IMPULSES EJECTING FROM SOUTHWEST.  NGM
WOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP CHANCES BY 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL BUT IT IS THE ONLY ONE BRINGING ANY WIDESPREAD QPF
THAT FAR EAST. AVN SPOTS SOME IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE WEAK FEATURES...WILL SEE IF
ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS MIGHT BETTER DEFINE THESE...THUS WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY BEYOND LOW POPS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MAY BACK OFF HIGHS A TAD TOMORROW BUT STILL IN THE
90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE.  ABOUT THE SAME IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY...
WITH THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH CENTRAL AS H850 MB TEMPS WARM SOME THERE.

.TOP...NONE

PF

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-030315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
925 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEADED FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...

AT 925 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS HEADED SOUTH OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THE LINE OF
STORMS INTO THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEBRASKA AROUND OR A LITTLE
AFTER 11 PM.

THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
MANHATTAN...TOPEKA AND LAWRENCE AREAS...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

IF THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT STRENGTH...HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SOME HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS
THE STORMS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER MEDIA...FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

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