Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...THEN WRAP AROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EAST.  VERY
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH NO CAP.  MSAS DATA SHOWING LI'S
OF -10 IN THE CWA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE
FRONT IN AREA OF BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE CLOSER TO H5 WAVE.  EXPECT
OCCASIONAL THUNDER THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SO MAINLY THIS EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THROUGH
LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.  TORNADIC STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY JUST
TO OUR NORTH IN BETTER SHEAR AREA...AND MAIN THREAT IN OUR CWA WILL
BE WIND AND HAIL AS LINE ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING A SECONDARY WAVE AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO SKIRT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.  WILL
INTRODUCE A POP THERE FOR THE WHOLE DAY.  IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS UNTIL FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY.  MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH 50S DEW POINTS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITION NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN IN CENTRAL KANSAS.  PLEASANTLY COOL IN
THE EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR.

FLOW REALLY KICKS UP AGAIN IN CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK NORTH.  SOME CONCERN PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER WILL KEEP DRY FOR
NOW AS MAIN FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURES DON'T ENTER AREA
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPS A COMPROMISE OF FWC/FAN NUMBERS...WITH A LITTLE HEDGE TOWARD
WARMER NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

.TOP...NONE

62

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-132100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A
LINE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
CONCORDIA AROUND 4 PM.  AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THE
LINE OF STORMS INTO THE MANHATTAN AREA BY 7 OR 8 PM...THEN TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE AND EMPORIA AROUND 10 PM. HOWEVER THE LINE MAY ACCELERATE
WHICH WOULD MEAN STORMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA WILL COLLIDE WITH A
VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING TOGETHER THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0317 PM    MORROWVILLE               KS    .88 INCH HAIL
06/13/00   WASHINGTON                      DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.