Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2000

CONVECTION BEGAN EARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CWA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE RECEIVING RAIN.
THE INVISIBLE RAIN SHIELD WAS UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE TALLAHASSEE
REGIONAL AIRPORT AS NO RAIN FELL AT THE WEATHER SERVICE. PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND WITH AND WINDING DOWN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF CWA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...STORMS ARE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BIG BEND AND ACROSS
APALACHEE BAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SPS HAS OUR ENTIRE REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADING AND
CENTERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND LONG WAVE TROF AMPLIFYING
DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH 00Z SAT. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHORT
WAVES MOVING AFFECTING OUR CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR...
ALL MODELS DEPICT A VORT MAX NEAR NE ARKANSAS (REMNANT OF EARLIER
MCS) AT 18Z WED. THE NGM DROPS THIS FEATURE ALMOST DUE SOUTH TO
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE THE ETA TAKES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH
FLORIDA BY 06Z FRI. THE AVN SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVER MOST OF OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY
06Z FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...17Z LAMP SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW NEAR
CHARLESTON WITH A TROF EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE 18Z AVN SOLUTION.
ALSO...FEEL THAT THE AVN DID THE BEST JOB IN HANDLING THE FORECAST
ON THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THUS WILL BE MY MODEL OF CHOICE. WITH THAT
SAID...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND DRAG THE TROF FURTHER SOUTH INTO MY CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND CENTERING ON
SAVANNAH BY 12Z FRI.

FORECAST:
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
MOIST (PWAT >2.00 INCHES) AND UNSTABLE WITH UNMODIFIED
CAPE > 3000 J/KG. WILL MENTION CHANCE EVENING POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALONG WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND EXPECTED
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH POP DISTRIBUTION
AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE ENTIRE CWA. FAN/FWC TEMPS DIFFER
WITH ABY MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THE TWO DAYS AND WILL
BLEND. OTHERWISE...THEY ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

MARINE:
CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SEAS NEAR 2 FEET. FLOW IS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

EXTENDED:
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND MAY SEE A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. POP CHANCES LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE FORM OF
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO.

FIRE WEATHER:
NO HIGHLIGHTS...RH'S TOO HIGH.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TLH  75 96 74 95 3534
PFN  78 92 78 91 4434
DHN  74 96 74 95 3433
ABY  76 94 74 93 4533
VLD  75 95 74 94 4533

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

BARRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    ALBANY                    GA   WIND DAMAGE
07/11/00   DOUGHERTY                      TREE FELL ONTO VEHICLE.
                                          ***ONE INJURED***
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0400 PM    GORDON                    AL   WIND DAMAGE
07/11/00   HOUSTON                        ROOF OF A TRAILER WAS BLOWN
                                          OFF AT PLEASANT HILL
                                          CHURCH. REPORTED BY WDHN
                                          TV METEOROLOGIST.

0400 PM    PANSEY                    AL   WIND DAMAGE
07/11/00   HOUSTON                        THREE TREES DOWN. THREE
                                          BUILDINGS AND A FIRE
                                          STATION WERE DAMAGED.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0510 PM    2 S AUCILLA               FL   1.25 INCH HAIL
07/11/00   JEFFERSON                      QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

0510 PM    2 S AUCILLA               FL   WIND DAMAGE
07/11/00   JEFFERSON                      NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN NEAR CR 257
                                          U.S. HIGHWAY 90. REPORTED
                      8                    BY SHERIFF.

MAJ/08

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-121745-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE AIRMASS WAS
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA. AFTERNOON
HEATING...COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
ALOFT...THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...CAUSING PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH OR
TUNE INTO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

MAJ